The much-anticipated summit between the Presidents of the US and Russia turned out to be heavy on symbolism and flattery but very light indeed on concrete progress towards a ceasefire, let alone peace, in Ukraine. The red carpet was rolled out for an indicted war criminal whose country, whilst allegedly pursuing peace, was bombing its neighbour as the talks were taking place. The international isolation of Vladimir Putin ended decisively on land that belonged to Russia 160 years ago, and the message was conspicuous: the invader is once again a “reliable partner” in international affairs.

The machismo of the two septuagenarian leaders was also on full display in the form of a prolonged arm wrestle, which, with some goodwill, could be described as a warm handshake. US fighter jets flying over Putin’s head left little doubt as to which country holds military might, a gesture countered by the Russian president’s bold move to hitch a ride in his counterpart’s armoured car.

Flattery was another crucial element of the charade. Just hours before the summit, a Russian decree allowed foreign investors, including US oil major ExxonMobil, to regain shares in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project. Perhaps the most ingenious gesture from Vladimir Putin was his praise of the vainglorious US President, who, he suggested, would have prevented the Ukrainian war had he won the “rigged” 2020 election, an observation to which Mr Trump enthusiastically nodded along during the press conference.

That press conference was more of a low-level media event with both Presidents simply reading out communiqués as members of the press were barred from asking questions. As a result, the main issues of the meeting were left shrouded in secrecy, and seasoned journalists and political analysts began to suspect there was neither an impending deal nor a truce from the deal and peacemaker.

That suspicion was confirmed during Trump’s post-meeting interview with Fox News, by the buoyant reaction of the Russian press, and by the tangible rise in Ukrainian and European anxiety.

According to sources close to the talks, Russia maintained its core demand of addressing the “root causes” of the conflict, arguably the most significant geopolitical phrase of the past three years. To reiterate: these include the denial of Ukrainian statehood, halting NATO’s eastward expansion, and the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, which in practice means removing the incumbent President. Only after resolving these issues would Russia consider compromising on territorial disputes. For now, however, Putin demands that Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; once that condition is met, he would be willing to freeze the current frontline in the rest of Ukraine.

The following day, the US president briefed Ukrainian and European leaders on Russia’s request and persuaded them to abandon efforts for a ceasefire. In a social media post, Donald Trump concluded: “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.”  Yesterday he went as far as to say that it is Ukraine, which could end the war if it really wanted.

This represented a spectacular reversal from the belligerent rhetoric of the run-up to the meeting. Ironically, the summit coincided with Trump’s self-imposed deadline for Russia to make tangible progress towards ceasing hostilities. The threatened embargoes are unlikely to be implemented, and secondary sanctions on Russian energy buyers may be withdrawn or at least left unenforced. In his Fox News interview, Trump made it clear that he sees no need to impose punitive measures on Russian oil buyers, including China, though he left the door open to such a move “in two or three weeks.”

The best way to sum up Friday’s US-Russia talks is that the status quo, established in February 2022, remains intact. The US failed to achieve its stated goals and did not confront its adversary. Russia will continue its assault on Ukraine. President Trump is eager to secure a peace deal at any price, but Russia knows that time is on its side. The situation is fluid, and there are no guarantees that US policy will not flip on a whim. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Trump today, and his flattery may yet prove as effective as Putin’s. Additionally, and notably, an increasing number of Republicans are voicing concerns, openly or tacitly, about the US stance on Russia. Should the domestic and international backlash intensify, Trump could easily execute yet another U-turn.

For now, the worst for Ukraine has been avoided: it has not been forced to cede any territory. On the other hand, both a ceasefire and peace remain elusive and even perhaps unattainable.  Russia retains the upper hand. As long as that remains the case, no bullish impetus will come from this part of the world.

This relative calm about potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia has been aptly reflected in the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report. Net length in the US crude oil benchmark has flipped negative for the first time since at least 2010, the beginning of our dataset. Gross longs cut their exposure to 143 million bbls, a weekly decline of 21 million bbls. Bears added 5 million bbls to their existing positions, topping it up to 147 million bbls, resulting in a net length of -4 million bbls. In a Trump-dominated world, oil is influenced by a smorgasbord of factors due to the capricious nature of US policymaking, but for now, it seems Russia will not be a source of supply concern.

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