Daily Oil Fundamentals

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

08 May 2026

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

It sounds surreal. A one-page document outlining a 30-day truce, following a war that has cost the US $25 billion in military spending alone, has pushed oil prices down by $18/bbl in the space of three trading sessions. Investors and traders, justifiably or not, believe that some kind of ceasefire, during which the Strait would reopen and blockades would be lifted, is imminent; hence the sharp sell-off in oil.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Equities Hope, the Real US Superpower

07 May 2026

Equities Hope, the Real US Superpower

It is repetitious, to say the least, in noting once again the resilience of stock markets, particularly those of the United States. At present, if one allows some time to sit in front of a television and watch a financial news channel, there is hardly ever a talking head spouting doom and gloom on the ills that the current Gulf crisis might inflict on the global outlook. It would be too laboured a point for a deep dive into how shares are places of investment rather than trading.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

‘To Cease Upon the Midnight with No Pain’

06 May 2026

‘To Cease Upon the Midnight with No Pain’

Apart from the obligatory upbeat rhetoric from the US administration, the gunpowder barrel, the Strait of Hormuz, that is, remains exposed to explosion. Whether the spark will be ignited by Iran or the US is impossible to predict. In fact, the gap between narrative and reality is now probably wider than that between physical and futures oil prices. The Pentagon is at pains to emphasise that the month-long ceasefire has not been broken, while continuing to exchange (i.e. not cease) fire with its adversary.