One way to measure global and regional economic health is to follow the worldwide activities of manufacturers. The latest snapshot is anything but encouraging. Call it what you will—tariff headwinds, high interest rates, inflation anxiety, or stuttering aggregate demand—factories were forced to scale back production in November.
WTI +$0.49/barrel (+0.84%), Brent +$0.64/barrel (+1.02%), Heating Oil -12.34c/gallon (-5.02%), RBOB +1.25c/gallon (+0.66%) and Gasoil -$26.00/tonne (-3.65%). The difference between COB in October and November shows WTI -3.98%, Brent -2.87%, Heating Oil -4.04%, RBOB -4.88% and Gasoil -4.56% respectively. This is the longest run of losses since WTI fell five times during the Nov22 to Mar23 period and Brent’s five-straight declines over Jan23 to May23.
Oil market participants do not need any more uncertainty, therefore the glitch in CME today which has all futures markets down, might throw up some strange trading levels when it eventually arises from its binary-spilling slumber. As it is, the Ukraine negotiations can give one a healthy dose of optimism or in our case, scepticism.
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