Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Volatility of the Probability of Interest Rate Cuts

25 Nov 2025

The Volatility of the Probability of Interest Rate Cuts

The world is about to play catch up on US data and today sees another bout of metrics from the previous months in which all information sat in the in and out boxes of US government agencies during the shutdown. Patterns are now sought from investors trying to affirm a newfound attitude that there will indeed be an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in December. It may be that market participants are more attuned because of the importance of individual attitudes, but there seems a raised willingness by Fed board members to be verbose in opinion on monetary policy.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Week of Heightened Uncertainty

24 Nov 2025

A Week of Heightened Uncertainty

Risk assets were out of favour last week. The two major factors that forced investors to be careful and pragmatic may still have a long-lasting effect on both equities and the oil balance and, as such, on the formation of oil prices. Despite Friday’s reversal, global and US equities finished the week lower because confidence in US rate cuts next month has taken a hit due to tepid labour market data. Oil prices also fell sharply.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Anxious Equity Markets, Revived Peace Hopes

21 Nov 2025

Anxious Equity Markets, Revived Peace Hopes

Job creation and a reassuring earnings report from the world’s most valuable company would normally trigger a stock market rally. These times, however, are anything but normal. After Nvidia reported solid financial results and upbeat forward guidance, and the US economy created more jobs in September than anticipated, stocks took a handbrake turn and finished the day significantly lower, infecting Asian markets this morning.