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Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalation and Inflation

02 Sep 2026

Escalation and Inflation

No one knows what the endgame will look like, probably not even the man himself, but he is doing no favours for himself, his party, US voters, or the global economy. Oil prices continued their upward journey. The economic warfare against Iran is now coupled with renewed US military attacks on Iranian targets and vice versa after two tankers came under fire on Monday. Details of the latest round of confrontations are sadly irrelevant; oil prices tell the story. Fears of intensifying supply disruptions are rising, particularly in the middle of the barrel, as the CME Heating Oil contract jumped by more than $11/bbl equivalent and its premium to WTI shot back above $100/bbl.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

2-Flation is a Dream

01 Sep 2026

2-Flation is a Dream

Having been almost satirised after his debut press conference following July’s FOMC decision to keep rates on hold, every nook and cranny of economic writing was waiting for a goodly dollop of clarity when Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, addressed the Jackson Hole Symposium last week.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

This is Stalemate

28 Aug 2026

This is Stalemate

It has been a nine-day — correction, three-day — wonder. The latest fall in prices came to an abrupt halt yesterday, and oil moved north. Of course, betting on continuously higher prices would be foolish, but equally, expecting a prolonged drop below $80 is not a foregone conclusion either.

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