Daily Oil Fundamentals

Possible OPEC+ Supply Increase and Iran in the Foreground

16 Feb 2026

Possible OPEC+ Supply Increase and Iran in the Foreground

The weekly closing prices do not tell the story of last week’s events. Our market had to contend with the refreshed monthly oil balance reports, all of which envisage a year-on-year increase in global oil stocks to varying degrees. A huge weekly build in US crude oil inventories, possibly a consequence of the January polar vortex, also caught attention. The diplomatic tug-of-war between the US and Iran has not resulted in military action so far; nonetheless, fears of supply disruption have helped keep oil prices stable. The next round of talks is scheduled for tomorrow in Geneva amid rising tensions. The US has sent a second aircraft carrier to the region, and its military, US officials told Reuters, is preparing for a weeks-long campaign against the Persian Gulf OPEC member.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk is Off, but For How Long?

13 Feb 2026

Risk is Off, but For How Long?

It is premature to draw far-reaching conclusions from yesterday’s sharp decline in risk assets. It may have been timely profit-taking, exacerbated by a technical sell-off as crucial upside barriers proved too strong to overcome on Wednesday. In equities, souring sentiment on tech stocks was the predominant cause for the plunge, while the release of today’s US inflation data may also have served as the pretext for the retracement.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

12 Feb 2026

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

It takes a worried oil market to shrug off a weekly EIA Crude inventory build of 8.53mb, even if it can be explained away by reduced refinery runs. Our market smells trouble and with Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Donald Trump in Washington yesterday and be included in any decision in the next steps for the US when considering Iran, recent history suggests that the Israeli Prime Minister did not come armed with conciliatory language and a beacon of peace.