Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Change of Heart and a Change of Fortunes

23 Apr 2025

A Change of Heart and a Change of Fortunes

Words are mightier than fundamentals in our world at present and displayed by the cross-market reaction to a softening of tone by President Trump toward the FED Chair, Jerome Powell. After the last few days of stinging words and verbal thrusts indicating an ability to fire the Chair, another volte-face in the dance of the White House directives is completed by “I have no intention to fire him.”

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Turkish Delight in the US

22 Apr 2025

Turkish Delight in the US

After the three-day Easter hiatus, the performance of gold, the dollar, equities, and bonds are reliable barometers of the direction the oil market takes. Gold’s astronomical rise continued yesterday with another 2.9% jump, taking the combined return to 15% since April 7 and 33% since the US election last November. The dollar has been in a freefall for the past three months and the parachute has not opened yet as its index against six major currencies reached a nadir not seen for three years. The 10-year Treasury bond yield edged higher also reflecting ominous investor sentiment.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Easter Will Not Bring Peace for Markets

17 Apr 2025

Easter Will Not Bring Peace for Markets

While the EIA inventory report did not produce much of a shock, the lower than forecasted build of 515kb in Crude stock enabled market participants to look at the increased draws in products and the issue of refinery runs. The market will have to wait for next week’s data for a true reflection as disparity between the 1.8mb exports in Crude and the published build is labelled an ‘adjustment’.