Daily Oil Fundamentals

No End in Sight

12 May 2026

No End in Sight

The inability for a lasting deal between Iran and the United States has left markets in somewhat of a Neverland. Caught between dream and reality, A.I. ‘shoots for the second star on the right and on ‘til morning’, while everything is danger of being shot down by the Iran war taking on the role of ‘Tootles’. As in the ‘Peter Pan’ classic by J. M. Barrie, Captain Hook and Peter are not interested in a solution to their fight, they are just interested in the status quo.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanguine Markets

11 May 2026

Sanguine Markets

The Fed is worried. In its latest semi-annual Financial Stability Report, issued last Friday, it admonished investors about the risks the ongoing Iranian crisis poses to the smooth functioning of the economy. The main tenets of the publication are the risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Middle East conflict and the oil shock. A protracted conflict in the Persian Gulf and dysfunctional commodity supply chains could adversely impact the global and US economic outlook, while volatile price movements in energy and related financial products might lead to market strains.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

08 May 2026

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

It sounds surreal. A one-page document outlining a 30-day truce, following a war that has cost the US $25 billion in military spending alone, has pushed oil prices down by $18/bbl in the space of three trading sessions. Investors and traders, justifiably or not, believe that some kind of ceasefire, during which the Strait would reopen and blockades would be lifted, is imminent; hence the sharp sell-off in oil.