Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalation Instead of De-escalation

23 Jun 2025

Escalation Instead of De-escalation

Last week was characterized by ambiguity as investors desperately tried to evaluate the likelihood and the possible timing of a direct US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict after the Jewish state launched its first attacks on its arch-enemy on June 13. The rhetoric of the White House was not helpful and was even confusing and contradictory. Oil prices strengthened most of the week as fears of significant supply disruption rose. The negative economic impact of US strikes on Iran was mirrored in a sell-off in equities.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

“I May Do It. I May Not Do It”

20 Jun 2025

“I May Do It. I May Not Do It”

When the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stepped up to the podium yesterday to announce “President Trump thinks there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future”, going on to say that any decision on whether the US will carry out a military strike on Iran will be considered over the next two weeks, the derision and cries of TACO (Trump always chickens out) are heard from Washington to a disappointed Tel Aviv.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

He May or May Not

19 Jun 2025

He May or May Not

The US President’s influence on financial markets has become irritatingly axiomatic. Even when his posts or throw-away comments lack coherence and are contradictory, markets swing wider than a pendulum. Oil prices dropped nearly $3/bbl after Mr Trump said Iran tried to reach out to negotiate, although in the same sentence, he warned that the attempt came very late.