Daily Oil Fundamentals

Inflation is a Fact, not a Possibility

19 Mar 2026

Inflation is a Fact, not a Possibility

Markets could barely give any attention to the Federal Open Market Committee and its decision, unsurprisingly, to keep interest rates on hold. Frankly, if it were not for how the United States puts its clocks forward before the rest of the world, it might not have received much attention at all. Such was the bagatelle-like spinning and pinging of oil price numbers. The 11 against 1 vote, Stephen Miran (a Trumper) obviously wanted a cut, noted that inflation remains elevated and trending way above the 2 percent target. Not that the higher than forecast PPI posting by the US Labour Department would have had any effect, but it justifies the FOMC’s decision to be vigilant.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Our War, Your Problem

18 Mar 2026

Our War, Your Problem

Allegedly, the war has been won, yet there are no signs of de-escalation. If anything, tensions and tempers are running higher than before. Israel’s killing of the Iranian security chief and the head of the Basij militia has made the country’s leadership more defiant in continuing the war against its adversaries. Thus, it comes as no surprise that the supreme leader has reportedly rejected indirect offers to negotiate, while Tel Aviv has been targeted overnight with missiles carrying cluster warheads.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Too Early to Release Your Seat Belt

17 Mar 2026

Too Early to Release Your Seat Belt

Such constant gyration in prices and indeed emotion have become something of the everyday. It is always intriguing that at low oil prices movements are measured in dollars per barrel, but at inflated levels they are measured in percentages. A three percent move at $60 is hardly as headline grabbing as a similar move at $100/barrel, yet such is the human insistence on qualified measurement. This is why the Israel/US war on Iran causes such knuckle cracking as we sit in front of our screens and try to apply logic to an unfathomable issue.