Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Dollar, Trade Disputes and OPEC+

30 Jun 2025

The Dollar, Trade Disputes and OPEC+

By the end of last week, characterised as turbulent even by recent standards, some semblance of normalcy had been restored. It appears, and we are keeping our fingers crossed, that the frail armistice between Israel and Iran, brokered by the US and which was preceded by a demonstration of its military might, has not been violated. The sell-off in the equity market made a handbrake turn at the beginning of the week, and so did the rally in oil.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Weak Dollar, Strong Distillates

27 Jun 2025

Weak Dollar, Strong Distillates

After striking a truce in the Middle East, the U.S. President wasted little time in turning his attention back to his favourite antagonist in Washington D.C., the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. He is reportedly contemplating choosing Powell’s replacement well before the latter’s mandate ends in May next year. Concerns over the central bank’s independence have resurfaced, and the dollar index has plunged to its lowest level since March 2022. Mr. Powell has consistently argued that any potential reduction in U.S. borrowing costs will be data-driven—an approach Donald Trump clearly rejects.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Depleting US Oil Inventories

26 Jun 2025

Depleting US Oil Inventories

After a turbulent two weeks, a sense of calm has been restored. This feeling of normality is a welcome development although one must be prepared for the re-emergence of the mayhem. All it takes is a stray missile or a hostile social media post. For now, however, the shaky Israel-Iran truce remains in effect. Our base case scenario, therefore, is that investors, whilst they will keep their watchful eyes on the Middle East, are shifting their focus back to the macroeconomy and oil balance.