Daily Oil Fundamentals

Memorandum of Uselessness

18 Aug 2026

Memorandum of Uselessness

Prepare yourself for the long game. Can there really be any other conclusion than this war will enter the ‘never-ending’ category after Donald Trump spoke at the weekend? Stumping (such a marvellous American term) for votes at a political rally in the suburbs of New York, the US President in his normal unabashed style paid no reference to his promise of a short, sharp war or to his famed ‘drill, baby drill’ and the promise of lower oil prices.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

There are Trends in the Oil Market

17 Aug 2026

There are Trends in the Oil Market

Uncertainty naturally prevailed last week, simply because there are two conflicts taking place simultaneously close to, or in, oil-producing and refining regions, with ambiguous outcomes and with all the unintended, or, in fact, intended, consequences for the global economy. One need not be an expert in the field to conclude that, without these hostilities, oil prices would be lower.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalation, if Anything

14 Aug 2026

Escalation, if Anything

Yesterday’s drop in oil prices was likely driven by growing concerns about demand destruction, as discussed below. Still, in the current environment, it is hard to see the market retreating considerably. Hostilities continue on both fronts in the Middle East, around the Persian Gulf as well as the Red Sea. Since the US has proven powerless to achieve whatever objectives it has regarding Iran, it has been forced to resort to a belligerent narrative, which will do nothing to ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil through the Strait.

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Daily Oil Fundamentals