Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Star-Spangled Rodeo

19 Jan 2026

A Star-Spangled Rodeo

It may have only been a year since his inauguration, but the troubadour of trouble seems to have been walking these streets so long and singing the same old song of conflict that markets should be inured to a capricious President Trump. But his subject matter is so wide, and his fog-horned solutions so spiked with immeasurable consequence, that oil market participants can ill-afford to roll their eyes and dismiss him with a ‘whatever’.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk Premium Dumped

16 Jan 2026

Risk Premium Dumped

If there were a debate about the major driving force behind oil prices, it has probably been settled over the last two weeks. It is supply and output. Demand is what it is; it appears healthy, and perceptions of it do not turn on a dime. Equities and gold do their thing, and investors closely watch the tech sector, financial and job data, and the charade surrounding the Fed chair. The value of the dollar realistically reflects trust in US economic policies in general.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact

15 Jan 2026

Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact

The risk to oil prices coming from geopolitical instability is very much on full display again this morning as the developments in Iran, so very much part of the driving force behind the recent rally, have taken a much less anxious turn overnight. After promising “help is on its way”, giving an expectation of a US military intervention, the US President has turned the oil market’s mood by saying he has received assurances that killings of demonstrators in Iran had stopped.