Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Crisis Mitigation on the Horizon

27 Apr 2026

No Crisis Mitigation on the Horizon

A quiet weekend, at least by recent standards, saw an alleged assassination attempt against US government officials, including the President himself, foiled, and yet another setback in the truce talks between the US and Iran. In another example of Donald Trump’s whimsical policymaking, he abruptly called off plans to send his team of negotiators to Islamabad, Pakistan, for the next round of talks with the Persian Gulf nation.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ceasefire Increases Oil Movement Stasis

23 Apr 2026

Ceasefire Increases Oil Movement Stasis

The war in the Middle East has taken another turn, and arguably for the worse. Instead of trading missiles, drones and bombs, the new metric is how many ships can each side interfere with. After the US imposed its own blockade, it has now taken it internationally by intercepting 3 oil tankers in Asian waters, far from the Persian Gulf. Returning the favour, Iran has captured 2 container ships and IRGC gunboats have fired upon other vessels in and around Hormuz according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Oops!... He Did It Again

22 Apr 2026

Oops!... He Did It Again

 I expect to be bombing, because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. But we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go – President Trump. I don’t want to do that (extending the ceasefire). We don’t have that much time – President Trump. Today, all the spare capacity is behind the Strait of Hormuz, so the impact is very direct... The billion barrels of oil is now effectively baked in, because we have probably already lost 600–700 million at this stage. By the time things start moving again, it will take time to restore supply, which will bring the total loss close to one billion barrels. This is manifesting itself predominantly in Asian economies – Vitol CEO at FT Commodities Summit