Daily Oil Fundamentals

‘To Cease Upon the Midnight with No Pain’

06 May 2026

‘To Cease Upon the Midnight with No Pain’

Apart from the obligatory upbeat rhetoric from the US administration, the gunpowder barrel, the Strait of Hormuz, that is, remains exposed to explosion. Whether the spark will be ignited by Iran or the US is impossible to predict. In fact, the gap between narrative and reality is now probably wider than that between physical and futures oil prices. The Pentagon is at pains to emphasise that the month-long ceasefire has not been broken, while continuing to exchange (i.e. not cease) fire with its adversary.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Project Deadlock

05 May 2026

Project Deadlock

Under the auspice of ‘Project Freedom’ a couple of ships have made good on crossing the Strait of Hormuz, guided it is reported by US naval assets. Yet, other reports come in, and from reliable sources such as the UKMTO that a tanker in the strait and a bulk carrier north of Dubai have been hit by small aircrafts.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Supply Shock Triggers Inflation Shock

01 May 2026

Supply Shock Triggers Inflation Shock

Although prices fell yesterday—perhaps due to the Brent expiry or a reassessment of the damage the Persian Gulf stalemate has caused so far—the weakness was observed on the front-end, the fundamental backdrop has not changed, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is anything but imminent. In fact, the Middle East menu is becoming increasingly Mexican: the appetiser is NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), followed by TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).