It was a paradoxical, almost cynical day. The axiom holds that the Russian-Ukrainian war is directly and indirectly to blame for the oil complex's resilience. Reciprocal attacks and Western sanctions do more than just raise the geopolitical risk premium; they create a physical oil shortage, leaving consumers scrambling for alternatives.
The daily rotation of sentiment runs unabated in oil prices and after a much better performance yesterday, inspired by a tightening distillate market and dovish comments from members of the US Federal Reserve, the mood once again changes this morning.
The Russian-Ukrainian war, with all its consequences for the short and medium-term oil balance, remains at the centre of investors’ attention. Yesterday’s conflicting performance—RBOB falling, distillates rising, and crude oil settling broadly unchanged—suggests an undecided or cautious approach for now. The best way to sum up the current backdrop is to ask questions.
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