Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk Premium Dumped

16 Jan 2026

Risk Premium Dumped

If there were a debate about the major driving force behind oil prices, it has probably been settled over the last two weeks. It is supply and output. Demand is what it is; it appears healthy, and perceptions of it do not turn on a dime. Equities and gold do their thing, and investors closely watch the tech sector, financial and job data, and the charade surrounding the Fed chair. The value of the dollar realistically reflects trust in US economic policies in general.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact

15 Jan 2026

Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact

The risk to oil prices coming from geopolitical instability is very much on full display again this morning as the developments in Iran, so very much part of the driving force behind the recent rally, have taken a much less anxious turn overnight. After promising “help is on its way”, giving an expectation of a US military intervention, the US President has turned the oil market’s mood by saying he has received assurances that killings of demonstrators in Iran had stopped.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Fears Dominate Action

14 Jan 2026

Iran Fears Dominate Action

Oil market players are more anxious about losing Iranian barrels than gaining Venezuelan ones. As Tehran and other major cities are engulfed in flames amid anti-government riots, the US President has encouraged protesters to persevere, declaring that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” In what shape or form this support might arrive remains unclear at this stage; however, it is blatantly obvious that significant supply disruptions, whether through attacks on oil infrastructure or the imposition of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, are not being dismissed.