Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

10 Apr 2026

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

The ostensible ceasefire between the US and Iran must not be underestimated. It appears to be the most significant step towards instilling some calm, whatever that may mean, in the Middle East. The market reacted accordingly: oil prices dropped sharply, and equities rallied. At the same time, the possible truce must not be overestimated, something investors initially seemed guilty of, with both WTI and Brent falling as low as $91/bbl. After all, an autocratic regime is negotiating with a transactional, unreliable, and capricious US president.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

There is No Kidding King Dollar

09 Apr 2026

There is No Kidding King Dollar

While not exactly matching the astounding moves seen in crude oil prices of late, the US Dollar has attached itself, limpet like, to the fortunes of what happens in the black stuff. The obvious reason being that higher prices in oil give gateway signals for likewise higher inflation, and therefore probable hikes in interest rates to combat increases in all manner of prices which are beholden to the fortunes of oil. Yesterday’s announcement of a dubious ceasefire in the latest Middle East war brought a repricing of bets on interest rates on how the US Federal Reserve, the most important of central banks, might now show a more dovish lean if oil prices continued to fall. Patently not the case.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Breathing Space

08 Apr 2026

Breathing Space

As a two-week ceasefire has been agreed, the market reaction has been textbook: equities are experiencing a relief rally, while oil, on the promise of traffic resuming through the Strait, is in freefall. In theory, the 10–13 mbpd of crude oil and product supply stranded behind the Strait should now be gradually released. Whether the pre-March status quo will be re-established depends entirely on whether the truce can be turned into a permanent peace during the negotiations in Pakistan.