Daily Oil Fundamentals

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

14 May 2026

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

The world will have to wade through another standoff in China before any sort of help from Beijing in ending the greater standoff of the Iranian war. There is no end of flattery and flummery between Presidents Xi and Trump at the start of proceedings and most opinion from a broad range of commentators is how the US President enters the negotiations with a much weaker hand than he might like. With various court decisions still ringing in his ears and pulling the rug from under Trump's tariff policies, Xi will be less inclined to be either brow-beaten or accept China is the weaker partner in this trade relationship.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

13 May 2026

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

If the potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement is on “life support”, if Saudi Arabia, as reported by Reuters, has launched several unpublicised retaliatory attacks on Iran, and if Iran now defines the critical transport route as a significantly larger zone than before the war, then the odds of the conflict escalating and potentially causing further damage to oil installations and infrastructure in the region are growing. The risk of renewed tension sent crude oil prices significantly higher yesterday, although some of these gains are being given back this morning ahead of President Trump’s visit to China.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No End in Sight

12 May 2026

No End in Sight

The inability for a lasting deal between Iran and the United States has left markets in somewhat of a Neverland. Caught between dream and reality, A.I. ‘shoots for the second star on the right and on ‘til morning’, while everything is danger of being shot down by the Iran war taking on the role of ‘Tootles’. As in the ‘Peter Pan’ classic by J. M. Barrie, Captain Hook and Peter are not interested in a solution to their fight, they are just interested in the status quo.