Daily Oil Fundamentals

Supply Shock Triggers Inflation Shock

01 May 2026

Supply Shock Triggers Inflation Shock

Although prices fell yesterday—perhaps due to the Brent expiry or a reassessment of the damage the Persian Gulf stalemate has caused so far—the weakness was observed on the front-end, the fundamental backdrop has not changed, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is anything but imminent. In fact, the Middle East menu is becoming increasingly Mexican: the appetiser is NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), followed by TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Reality Bites, Hard

30 Apr 2026

Reality Bites, Hard

Whether or not there is any truth to a story in ‘Axios’ overnight that the US is contemplating a fresh wave of airstrikes on Iran to break the current deadlock in negotiations remains to be seen. But oil prices need little encouragement to tempt them higher at present. After warning that the US blockade of Iran could run to many months, the US President is widely reported to have consulted the heads of major oil companies if there are any measures as to how any effect of a lasting closure of the Strait of Hormuz might be mitigated. The market can answer that for you Mr President, the answer is no, bearing in mind the eight-straight days of rally seen in Brent futures to achieve levels this morning not seen since March 2022, just after the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Adding to the Chaos

29 Apr 2026

Adding to the Chaos

After 55 years, it was time to call it a day—the end of a beautiful friendship. The UAE’s decision to leave both OPEC and OPEC+ can be described as a seismic change, though not in the short term. The UAE is one of only two oil-producing nations, alongside Saudi Arabia, with a substantial supply cushion.