The problems of the Strait of Hormuz are not cured. So says the Iranians when they launched attacks on commercial shipping for not adhering to requests to navigate in the shipping lanes nearer to the Iranian coast rather than that of Oman. And so says the US President.
It was never going to be a straight path to peace, and there was a reason why the extended truce between the US and Iran, which is due to expire in the middle of August, has been characterised as tentative, ostensible, or fragile. Although the Strait reopened and trade flows resumed, there has been no progress in negotiations aimed at denuclearising Iran in return for, among other concessions, the unfreezing of Iranian funds held abroad.
There was a particularly convincing and well written investigative piece in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly last week. It is something we not only admire but wished we had authored. Entitled ‘How Oil Markets Took Hormuz Crisis in Stride’, it picks apart the assumption most of our fraternity, including us, expected that closing the most important sea passage for oil communication would result in oil prices making record highs.
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