Daily Oil Fundamentals

“I May Do It. I May Not Do It”

20 Jun 2025

“I May Do It. I May Not Do It”

When the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stepped up to the podium yesterday to announce “President Trump thinks there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future”, going on to say that any decision on whether the US will carry out a military strike on Iran will be considered over the next two weeks, the derision and cries of TACO (Trump always chickens out) are heard from Washington to a disappointed Tel Aviv.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

He May or May Not

19 Jun 2025

He May or May Not

The US President’s influence on financial markets has become irritatingly axiomatic. Even when his posts or throw-away comments lack coherence and are contradictory, markets swing wider than a pendulum. Oil prices dropped nearly $3/bbl after Mr Trump said Iran tried to reach out to negotiate, although in the same sentence, he warned that the attempt came very late.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Blanket of Unease Descends on Oil Markets and Indeed the World

18 Jun 2025

A Blanket of Unease Descends on Oil Markets and Indeed the World

The black hole of Middle East current affairs takes precept of all oil price thinking and nothing can break its gravity, with both meanings of the word intended. Our market is settling into a world where missile exchanges are commonplace but the cynicism of it being normal has yet to set in because of how easily the situation could escalate.