Yesterday, the oil market performed more pirouettes than might be seen at the forthcoming season in the Nutcracker ballet. Bulls were armed with Israel's chat on possible targeting of Iran's oil infrastructure and possible damage from Hurricane Milton while bears with the lack of specific stimulus from China and Hezbollah jawboning a possible truce with Israel.
Oil can keep ascending only for so long purely based on perceptions and not actual supply disruption. Undeniably, the trifecta of money managers covering short speculative bets, the innate fear of missing out on much higher prices, and the still elevated anxiety level amongst investors of a possible and significant supply disruption helped Brent reach its highest level for over a month.
The world is one year older and none the wiser as the anniversary of the latest atrocity in the millennia of similar outrage is upon us. There is no build up to a listing of what has transpired in Middle East that leads to a hopeful 'but', with ensuing descriptions of a placatory future. It is and remains a shocking mess. The initial fear of war spread that dissipated has been reignited after last week's missile attack from Iran into Israel, and the dire imaginations of burning oil infrastructure from Kharg Island to Riyadh plot their paths across the media once again.
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