Daily Oil Fundamentals

Confusion Rules

17 Apr 2026

Confusion Rules

There are likely three main reasons why oil prices rallied yesterday, notwithstanding the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced in the afternoon. First, while it is undeniably a welcome move, it is temporary, and Hezbollah, which both Israel and the Lebanese government want to disarm, was lukewarm and ambivalent in its comments on the agreement. Second, the ultimate Israeli goal of removing the oppressive and hardline Iranian regime is still far from being accomplished. Third, the temporary ceasefire will not automatically lead to a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, at least not immediately. Adding to this, the US–Iran ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, and the US blockade of the Strait remains intact.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Duplicitous Headlines

16 Apr 2026

Duplicitous Headlines

Harvey Dent is a fictional character from the world of DC Comics with a nickname of ‘Two-Face’. He is a tragic figure, burdened with a good-looking half of a face, one which seems to represent truth and decency, while the other is scarred, burned with acid and has a personality of an insane criminal. Do not headline and political statements feel as if we are dealing with our own ‘Two-Face’ every day? Yesterday a shouty headline, and sourced to AP, said that the US and Iran had agreed in principle on extended the current truce. Twenty minutes later, and sourced from Axios, a complete counter-headline said the US had not agreed to any extension.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

War or Peace

15 Apr 2026

War or Peace

All it took was another announcement by the US President, this time in an interview with the New York Post, that talks between his country and Iran might resume in the immediate future, and markets reacted obediently. Oil was sold off, casually ignoring the fact that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war levels (10.1 mbpd was lost in March, according to the IEA), and that the US will allow the Iranian oil waiver to expire.