Daily Oil Fundamentals

Don’t Believe Everything You Read on the Internet

11 Mar 2026

Don’t Believe Everything You Read on the Internet

Probably the best way to describe what investors think about the Iranian war is to reiterate Monday’s trading ranges: $38/bbl in WTI, $36/bbl in Brent, $52/bbl equivalent in Heating Oil, $28/bbl equivalent in RBOB, and $51/bbl equivalent in Gasoil. Trading yesterday remained equally nervous and choppy. A drop of $14/bbl from high to low, precipitated by the US energy secretary’s social media post about the US Navy escorting an oil tanker through Hormuz, was quickly reversed when the post was deleted, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard refuted it.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Gulf Oil Output, Refining and Transport at Standstill, Oil is Above $100

09 Mar 2026

Gulf Oil Output, Refining and Transport at Standstill, Oil is Above $100

What a week it was, and what a week it will be. Researchers and analysts have been vague in predicting the next steps or outcomes of the Iranian conflict, which erupted a little over a week ago. The situation changes so rapidly that by the time the ‘send’ button is pressed, the content will already have become obsolete. Financial investors and oil traders do not have such qualms; they cannot afford the luxury of being slow to act. They voted, and will continue to vote, with their dollars. Last week’s performance conspicuously displayed the elevated level of anxiety about real and potential supply shortages.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Pragmatism, not Panic

06 Mar 2026

Pragmatism, not Panic

Every war is idiosyncratic; it has its own characteristics. Motivations, impacts, and outcomes can and do differ. It may be a futile exercise to compare the current Iranian conflict with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; nonetheless, attempting to highlight what is common and what is different in these geopolitical events could help assess how high oil prices might rise.