Daily Oil Fundamentals

Reality Fails to Check in

22 May 2026

Reality Fails to Check in

Once again, oil and equities yo-yoed and danced to the tune of the narrative surrounding the Persian Gulf. And what a vibrant day it was. Wednesday’s sell-off in oil continued into the early hours of yesterday’s session after the US President confidently announced that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. A sharp reversal was triggered after Reuters reported that the Iranian Supreme Leader had issued a directive stating that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must not be sent abroad, one of the key demands of the US. Then again, news of a draft agreement between the two countries produced yet another handbrake turn, sending oil $6/bbl lower within the space of three hours

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Words Move Prices More than Weapons

21 May 2026

Words Move Prices More than Weapons

Our market continues to dance to the tune of the US President. Whatever ‘off ramp’ is conjured in the mind of Donald Trump to end the war and Hormuz pinch, his words of appeasement that never quite stack up, once again prompt the idea within our fraternity that maybe this is the time.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Familiar Pattern

20 May 2026

Familiar Pattern

So, Brent rallied from $96 to $113 between May 7 and May 18. Equities started weakening in the middle of last week. Bonds are being sold off, and the US 10-year yield has risen to its highest level since last February, while the 30-year yield hit 5.18%, a fresh 19-year record. Both consumer and producer prices are on an upward trajectory in the US and elsewhere. Estimates put the cost of the Iranian war at around $72 billion.