Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

14 Mar 2025

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

The bankers of New York on their way home this evening, while gracing the wonderful bar in Grand Central Station will be crying 200% tariff tears into their Irish whiskey or French Bordeaux. For that is the new level of threat from Donald Trump as he retaliates to the retaliation of the EU’s plan for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey. And so the circular upping of the ante in a global trade war begins, and the world shivers in its wake. The tears shed by the bankers are not just for the impending price rise in their favourite commuting tipple.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Some Relief, At Last

13 Mar 2025

Some Relief, At Last

Correction was always coming but it was not obvious when. The answer arrived yesterday. Better than expected US inflation readings coupled with considerable drawdowns in US oil stocks attracted some money back to risk assets or at least those with short positions felt inclined to cover. As the Federal Reserve is trying to tame inflation without encouraging recession consumer prices rose in February less than expected. Headline inflation was +2.8% with the core reading at +3.1%.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Oil is Currently Bearish but Confusing

12 Mar 2025

Oil is Currently Bearish but Confusing

As we touched on in yesterday’s report the ability for management in large corporations to pick long paths of stability is shrinking on a daily basis. If the US President has the stock market in mind, it is nothing compared with the heads of companies, who, unlike Mr Trump are not guaranteed their seats for the next 4 years. We have already heard some quibbles from the top dogs of industry. The CEO of Ford described threatened or implemented tariffs as causing “chaos” for car makers.