Daily Oil Fundamentals

There is No Kidding King Dollar

09 Apr 2026

There is No Kidding King Dollar

While not exactly matching the astounding moves seen in crude oil prices of late, the US Dollar has attached itself, limpet like, to the fortunes of what happens in the black stuff. The obvious reason being that higher prices in oil give gateway signals for likewise higher inflation, and therefore probable hikes in interest rates to combat increases in all manner of prices which are beholden to the fortunes of oil. Yesterday’s announcement of a dubious ceasefire in the latest Middle East war brought a repricing of bets on interest rates on how the US Federal Reserve, the most important of central banks, might now show a more dovish lean if oil prices continued to fall. Patently not the case.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Breathing Space

08 Apr 2026

Breathing Space

As a two-week ceasefire has been agreed, the market reaction has been textbook: equities are experiencing a relief rally, while oil, on the promise of traffic resuming through the Strait, is in freefall. In theory, the 10–13 mbpd of crude oil and product supply stranded behind the Strait should now be gradually released. Whether the pre-March status quo will be re-established depends entirely on whether the truce can be turned into a permanent peace during the negotiations in Pakistan.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

07 Apr 2026

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

The damage being done in the war around the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is not just on localised infrastructure, for there drips a continued narrative of how further conflict will not just damage the soft indicators of confidence but actual physical metrics. The world may no longer be complacent or delusional in how long the war lasts or at least the longevity of its aftereffects, but the bite of increased energy prices is being felt across the globe, even within the insulated economy of the United States.