Daily Oil Fundamentals

An Eerie Equilibrium

14 Apr 2026

An Eerie Equilibrium

It has become a modern phenomenon, exampled in recent years by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, that markets after weeks and sometimes months of having nerves frayed, end up in entering a state of desensitisation. The wobbly US/Iranian ceasefire is allowing a certain amount of navel-gazing, and it turns out that any glance into unseemly depths is occluded by fluff. This is also brought about by a lack of trust in anything coming from either the US or Iran.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

13 Apr 2026

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

An eventful weekend saw the first direct talks between the US and Iran in nearly 50 years bear no fruit, while the MAGA movement suffered a significant setback. After declaring a two-week ceasefire last week, negotiations between the warring parties failed to produce an agreement. A predictable chasm in views and objectives, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, proved irreconcilable in Pakistan.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

10 Apr 2026

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

The ostensible ceasefire between the US and Iran must not be underestimated. It appears to be the most significant step towards instilling some calm, whatever that may mean, in the Middle East. The market reacted accordingly: oil prices dropped sharply, and equities rallied. At the same time, the possible truce must not be overestimated, something investors initially seemed guilty of, with both WTI and Brent falling as low as $91/bbl. After all, an autocratic regime is negotiating with a transactional, unreliable, and capricious US president.