Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

10 Feb 2026

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

When in doubt, pick a Sun Tzu quote. ‘All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.’ Landing on an enemy, or even an ally, with an intercontinental ballistic loud hailer with demands that stretch beyond anything that can be granted until negotiation brings a favourable outcome to the US President, is a solid and well-trodden play. The Chinese general’s historical observation is made almost complete as the outcome of the US/Iran talks in Oman remains unclear and grows more so every day.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Omnipresent Unease and Anxiety

09 Feb 2026

Omnipresent Unease and Anxiety

When set against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or Hamas’s terrorist assault on Israeli civilians in 2023—followed by the devastation of Gaza, a US strike on Iran’s nuclear capability, the surreal “Liberation Day” announcement last April, and the abduction of the leader of an OPEC member—this latest eventful five-day period looks something of a damp squib. Yet trading conditions were vicious, with asset prices whipped around chaotically, as the constant shifts in the investment climate, unlike the meteorological one, show no sign of being a hoax.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk On, Risk Off, Repeat

06 Feb 2026

Risk On, Risk Off, Repeat

Well, after digesting a cornucopia of data, investors were swimming in a sea of red yesterday. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to leave lending rates untouched. The BoE’s decision came after a knife-edge vote, with monetary luminaries split 5–4 in favour of staying put; however, reductions are anticipated later this year as the Bank lowered its UK growth forecast. The ECB and the euro zone appear to be in as good a place as they can be in the current hectic economic environment. Unless core inflation falls meaningfully in the coming months, no further adjustment is anticipated.