Daily Oil Fundamentals

CPI, Employment and Oil Prediction Discord

12 Sep 2025

CPI, Employment and Oil Prediction Discord

The slight acceleration in the US month-on-month CPI reading for August was a little surprising after the softer PPI but just goes to highlight the complexity which faces the Federal Reserve and those of us trying to plot a future path for markets. Much can be made of, and indeed there is logic in, how analysts attribute the slight blip higher to the passing of tariff costs to customers, but given other drivers, the monthly data is largely ignored.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Short-Term Hedge Against Escalation

11 Sep 2025

Short-Term Hedge Against Escalation

The support that geopolitical events provide to oil prices is finite. When tensions rise in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East or around Russia, the market’s gut reaction is to cover short positions and build up some length. These moves are driven by perceptions, specifically, the belief that not only financial but, more importantly, physical oil supply will be adversely affected.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

War is Back on the Menu

10 Sep 2025

War is Back on the Menu

In a testament to the professionalism of our market, and the growing global immunity to the ongoings of war that two invasions of sovereign territory are greeted with only a mild reaction in prices. This of course refers to the downing of Russian military hardware by Polish and NATO forces as weaponry transiting to Ukraine from Russia is shot down. The other more outrageous but also shrugged off airspace abuse is the targeting of Hamas leaders by Israel in the Qatar capital of Doha.