Daily Oil Fundamentals

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

13 Apr 2026

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

An eventful weekend saw the first direct talks between the US and Iran in nearly 50 years bear no fruit, while the MAGA movement suffered a significant setback. After declaring a two-week ceasefire last week, negotiations between the warring parties failed to produce an agreement. A predictable chasm in views and objectives, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, proved irreconcilable in Pakistan.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

10 Apr 2026

The Dollar, Rare Earth, and the Strait

The ostensible ceasefire between the US and Iran must not be underestimated. It appears to be the most significant step towards instilling some calm, whatever that may mean, in the Middle East. The market reacted accordingly: oil prices dropped sharply, and equities rallied. At the same time, the possible truce must not be overestimated, something investors initially seemed guilty of, with both WTI and Brent falling as low as $91/bbl. After all, an autocratic regime is negotiating with a transactional, unreliable, and capricious US president.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

There is No Kidding King Dollar

09 Apr 2026

There is No Kidding King Dollar

While not exactly matching the astounding moves seen in crude oil prices of late, the US Dollar has attached itself, limpet like, to the fortunes of what happens in the black stuff. The obvious reason being that higher prices in oil give gateway signals for likewise higher inflation, and therefore probable hikes in interest rates to combat increases in all manner of prices which are beholden to the fortunes of oil. Yesterday’s announcement of a dubious ceasefire in the latest Middle East war brought a repricing of bets on interest rates on how the US Federal Reserve, the most important of central banks, might now show a more dovish lean if oil prices continued to fall. Patently not the case.