Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Lesson in Cynicism

19 May 2026

A Lesson in Cynicism

It is difficult to confirm whether Donald Trump is playing brinkmanship with markets rather than Iran. Last week he said, “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran is they can’t have a nuclear weapon, I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation”. In a sea of half-truths, or worse, in his second term and peppered with an in ordinate number of gaffes, this one has curiously found little press or challenge.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Uncertainty Keeps Ruling

18 May 2026

Uncertainty Keeps Ruling

A soundbite or catchphrase has been permeating Wall Street these days, weeks and months, which some might call cynical or even arrogant. It goes along the lines of: “The biggest risk to equities currently is that there is not enough risk-taking.” Well, a reality check duly arrived on Friday, which some might find surprising and others long overdue. All the major stock indices lost value on Friday and over the week. The MSCI All-Country Index retreated 1.5% on the last day of the week, the same as the Nasdaq Composite Index.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

15 May 2026

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

When the changes in the updated monthly oil balance reports are scrutinised in light of the price movement, the picture that emerges implies a relatively relaxed, or even nonchalant, attitude towards the potential adverse impacts of the stand-off between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz. When scanning through the latest dataset, one can only conclude, in awe, that oil prices should be significantly higher. There were massive bullish adjustments on the supply side of the equation and mildly bearish ones on the demand side. Any analyst worth her salt, however, is intellectually flexible enough to admit that she cannot be smarter than the entire oil fraternity; thus, she will start desperately seeking a possible explanation for the market behaviour.