Daily Oil Fundamentals

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

07 Apr 2026

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

The damage being done in the war around the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is not just on localised infrastructure, for there drips a continued narrative of how further conflict will not just damage the soft indicators of confidence but actual physical metrics. The world may no longer be complacent or delusional in how long the war lasts or at least the longevity of its aftereffects, but the bite of increased energy prices is being felt across the globe, even within the insulated economy of the United States.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Last Month

02 Apr 2026

Last Month

By any standard, the month of March was shocking, unprecedented, turbulent, vicious, and nightmarish—take your pick. The returns of the five major oil futures and options contracts were eye-watering. They are summarised in the table below, with rollovers arbitrarily taking place on the penultimate trading day of March.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Wishful Thinking or More than Rumours?

01 Apr 2026

Wishful Thinking or More than Rumours?

Whether the sharp sell-off in oil prices yesterday and the rally in equities were the result of end-of-month and end-of-quarter positioning or unconfirmed reports of Iran's willingness to end the war is unclear. In the latter case, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be in focus. The possibilities are discussed below. What were, nonetheless, factual developments were the strengthening of the backwardation in both the WTI and Brent structures, notwithstanding the fall in outright prices, renewed overnight attacks on the Gulf states and Iran, and the US warning its citizens in Saudi Arabia to shelter due to alleged threats against US interests in the country.