Daily Oil Fundamentals

War or Peace

15 Apr 2026

War or Peace

All it took was another announcement by the US President, this time in an interview with the New York Post, that talks between his country and Iran might resume in the immediate future, and markets reacted obediently. Oil was sold off, casually ignoring the fact that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war levels (10.1 mbpd was lost in March, according to the IEA), and that the US will allow the Iranian oil waiver to expire.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

An Eerie Equilibrium

14 Apr 2026

An Eerie Equilibrium

It has become a modern phenomenon, exampled in recent years by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, that markets after weeks and sometimes months of having nerves frayed, end up in entering a state of desensitisation. The wobbly US/Iranian ceasefire is allowing a certain amount of navel-gazing, and it turns out that any glance into unseemly depths is occluded by fluff. This is also brought about by a lack of trust in anything coming from either the US or Iran.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

13 Apr 2026

Failed Peace Talks, Falling Popularity

An eventful weekend saw the first direct talks between the US and Iran in nearly 50 years bear no fruit, while the MAGA movement suffered a significant setback. After declaring a two-week ceasefire last week, negotiations between the warring parties failed to produce an agreement. A predictable chasm in views and objectives, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, proved irreconcilable in Pakistan.