Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

12 Feb 2026

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

It takes a worried oil market to shrug off a weekly EIA Crude inventory build of 8.53mb, even if it can be explained away by reduced refinery runs. Our market smells trouble and with Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Donald Trump in Washington yesterday and be included in any decision in the next steps for the US when considering Iran, recent history suggests that the Israeli Prime Minister did not come armed with conciliatory language and a beacon of peace.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

11 Feb 2026

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

Perhaps the culprit is the annual industry gathering in London, but oil, compared with recent weeks and months, was uncharacteristically subdued yesterday. No doubt, as market players rub shoulders, the centrepiece of discussions is the brewing tension between Iran and the US and whether nuclear talks between the traditional adversaries might break down, leading to actual supply disruptions, potentially including the feared closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While rhetoric remains belligerent at times, there are no signs, at least for now, of escalation, and the US President believes that Iran will ultimately want to strike a deal on its nuclear missile programme.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

10 Feb 2026

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

When in doubt, pick a Sun Tzu quote. ‘All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.’ Landing on an enemy, or even an ally, with an intercontinental ballistic loud hailer with demands that stretch beyond anything that can be granted until negotiation brings a favourable outcome to the US President, is a solid and well-trodden play. The Chinese general’s historical observation is made almost complete as the outcome of the US/Iran talks in Oman remains unclear and grows more so every day.