Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalation, if Anything

14 Aug 2026

Escalation, if Anything

Yesterday’s drop in oil prices was likely driven by growing concerns about demand destruction, as discussed below. Still, in the current environment, it is hard to see the market retreating considerably. Hostilities continue on both fronts in the Middle East, around the Persian Gulf as well as the Red Sea. Since the US has proven powerless to achieve whatever objectives it has regarding Iran, it has been forced to resort to a belligerent narrative, which will do nothing to ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil through the Strait.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Inflation is Hormuz Dependent

13 Aug 2026

Inflation is Hormuz Dependent

The markets lined themselves up yesterday in anticipation of the July US CPI reading which eventually delivered something of damp squib. Those that predicted only a meagre rise in the prices paid in the US were proven right and it was indeed the lower gasoline prices consumers enjoyed when the memorandum of understanding still held some viability that kept inflation in check. The strains of doves have increased in volume with the probability of a rate hike falling considerably on the CME FedWatch tool.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ongoing Talks, Ongoing Disruption

12 Aug 2026

Ongoing Talks, Ongoing Disruption

Oil traders remained true to their recent selves. They reacted to a smorgasbord of headlines, driving prices to highs not seen in two weeks and resulting in a rather impressive recovery of nearly $12/bbl from low to high over five days, basis Brent.

Insights

Daily Oil Fundamentals