Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanguine Markets

11 May 2026

Sanguine Markets

The Fed is worried. In its latest semi-annual Financial Stability Report, issued last Friday, it admonished investors about the risks the ongoing Iranian crisis poses to the smooth functioning of the economy. The main tenets of the publication are the risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Middle East conflict and the oil shock. A protracted conflict in the Persian Gulf and dysfunctional commodity supply chains could adversely impact the global and US economic outlook, while volatile price movements in energy and related financial products might lead to market strains.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

08 May 2026

High Correlation between Truth and Oil Prices

It sounds surreal. A one-page document outlining a 30-day truce, following a war that has cost the US $25 billion in military spending alone, has pushed oil prices down by $18/bbl in the space of three trading sessions. Investors and traders, justifiably or not, believe that some kind of ceasefire, during which the Strait would reopen and blockades would be lifted, is imminent; hence the sharp sell-off in oil.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Equities Hope, the Real US Superpower

07 May 2026

Equities Hope, the Real US Superpower

It is repetitious, to say the least, in noting once again the resilience of stock markets, particularly those of the United States. At present, if one allows some time to sit in front of a television and watch a financial news channel, there is hardly ever a talking head spouting doom and gloom on the ills that the current Gulf crisis might inflict on the global outlook. It would be too laboured a point for a deep dive into how shares are places of investment rather than trading.