Daily Oil Fundamentals

Clowns and Cunning Stunts, the Circus Has Extended its Run

21 Apr 2026

Clowns and Cunning Stunts, the Circus Has Extended its Run

The case for Iran’s hydra came back to haunt the peace process over the weekend, it is now difficult to know who the US should be negotiating with, the softer face of the likes of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, or the battle-hardened, hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Araghchi, described as a pragmatist and indeed, looked upon by the US as someone to do business with, seemed at the front of the deal in which the Strait of Hormuz was declared open on Friday. Whatever the Foreign Ministry was trying to achieve it was immediately undermined and refuted by what appears to be battlefield commanders. Forgive the long quote, but a piece in the Wall St Journal is so very eye opening.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

In Perpetual Flux

20 Apr 2026

In Perpetual Flux

A successful politician is also a cunning linguist, and the words in his arsenal can prove more devastating than guns, drones, or sea mines. On Friday afternoon, Iran's foreign minister said in a social media post that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. The passage of vessels through the strait will follow the coordinated route already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran, Abbas Araqchi added in a post on X. Stocks and bonds rallied, and oil was pushed over the precipice. The pressure intensified when the US President declared that he expected the Iran deal “soon.”

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Confusion Rules

17 Apr 2026

Confusion Rules

There are likely three main reasons why oil prices rallied yesterday, notwithstanding the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced in the afternoon. First, while it is undeniably a welcome move, it is temporary, and Hezbollah, which both Israel and the Lebanese government want to disarm, was lukewarm and ambivalent in its comments on the agreement. Second, the ultimate Israeli goal of removing the oppressive and hardline Iranian regime is still far from being accomplished. Third, the temporary ceasefire will not automatically lead to a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, at least not immediately. Adding to this, the US–Iran ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, and the US blockade of the Strait remains intact.