Daily Oil Fundamentals

Operation Epic Failure

16 Mar 2026

Operation Epic Failure

Perhaps the US was emboldened by its sensationally nimble military action against the former Venezuelan president at the beginning of 2026 and grew confident that quick strikes on Iran would suffice to remove the country’s oppressive and autocratic regime for the benefit of its people. Two weeks into the conflict, now undeniably a quagmire, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that launching military operations against Iran may have been a massive miscalculation, reminiscent of Putin’s misreading of Ukrainian resilience.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

13 Mar 2026

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

Nothing alleviates the disruption to oil supply, production, and exports from the Persian Gulf. After yesterday’s International Energy Agency announcement about a coordinated effort to flood the market with 400 million bbl of oil over 90 days, equivalent to around 4.5 mbpd, and the US floating the idea of a waiver to the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, oil rallied back above $100/bbl and Heating Oil flirted with the $4/gallon mark, which is equivalent to $168/bbl.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

From Bad to Worse

12 Mar 2026

From Bad to Worse

Stock markets take a hit; yields rise and the future pricing for interest rate cuts in the likes of the CME FedWatch Tool are evaporating at a rate of knots. With confidence in the wider representation of risk falling away, the all too familiar seeking of a haven is sought and the USD Dollar, using the Dollar Index, makes a year-to-date high. Only a little of these moves can be sourced back to the posting of the US CPI yesterday.