Daily Oil Fundamentals

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

13 May 2026

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

If the potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement is on “life support”, if Saudi Arabia, as reported by Reuters, has launched several unpublicised retaliatory attacks on Iran, and if Iran now defines the critical transport route as a significantly larger zone than before the war, then the odds of the conflict escalating and potentially causing further damage to oil installations and infrastructure in the region are growing. The risk of renewed tension sent crude oil prices significantly higher yesterday, although some of these gains are being given back this morning ahead of President Trump’s visit to China.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No End in Sight

12 May 2026

No End in Sight

The inability for a lasting deal between Iran and the United States has left markets in somewhat of a Neverland. Caught between dream and reality, A.I. ‘shoots for the second star on the right and on ‘til morning’, while everything is danger of being shot down by the Iran war taking on the role of ‘Tootles’. As in the ‘Peter Pan’ classic by J. M. Barrie, Captain Hook and Peter are not interested in a solution to their fight, they are just interested in the status quo.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanguine Markets

11 May 2026

Sanguine Markets

The Fed is worried. In its latest semi-annual Financial Stability Report, issued last Friday, it admonished investors about the risks the ongoing Iranian crisis poses to the smooth functioning of the economy. The main tenets of the publication are the risks to inflation and growth stemming from the Middle East conflict and the oil shock. A protracted conflict in the Persian Gulf and dysfunctional commodity supply chains could adversely impact the global and US economic outlook, while volatile price movements in energy and related financial products might lead to market strains.