Daily Oil Fundamentals

Tentative Peace Talks and Russian Diesel Shipments

28 Oct 2026

Tentative Peace Talks and Russian Diesel Shipments

The fact that negotiations between the Mecca Alliance and Iran have not broken down and are expected to continue was sufficient to persuade sellers to emerge and push oil prices lower for the second consecutive day. Heating Oil was particularly hard-hit, with three Russian cargoes carrying 140,000 tonnes of diesel (around 1 million bbl, or less than 35,000 bpd over a month) heading towards the US as part of the White House’s deal to exempt Russian refined products from sanctions.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Change is Good, Only When it Comes

27 Oct 2026

Change is Good, Only When it Comes

There is a strange geopolitical coincidence giving pause for thought or thought to pause in the progress of oil prices today. Following on from Qatar’s overtures in Tehran over the weekend, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan continue to press for peace and the talks which started with Iranian representatives yesterday look set to be ongoing, although timelines are unclear.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Two Elections: Are They Critical?

26 Oct 2026

Two Elections: Are They Critical?

As usual, last week had a lot to digest. The bond market cooled off, especially in the US. The 10-year yield fell back below 5%, retreating from the multi-decade peak of 5.365% registered at the beginning of October. The retreat, however, did not reflect improved inflation expectations. Judging by the relentless increase in oil prices, inflation will accelerate further. The reason for the correction was that Treasury bonds fulfilled their classic role as a safe haven when equity markets sent out ominous signals, as was the case last week.

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Daily Oil Fundamentals