Daily Oil Fundamentals

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

13 Mar 2026

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

Nothing alleviates the disruption to oil supply, production, and exports from the Persian Gulf. After yesterday’s International Energy Agency announcement about a coordinated effort to flood the market with 400 million bbl of oil over 90 days, equivalent to around 4.5 mbpd, and the US floating the idea of a waiver to the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, oil rallied back above $100/bbl and Heating Oil flirted with the $4/gallon mark, which is equivalent to $168/bbl.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

From Bad to Worse

12 Mar 2026

From Bad to Worse

Stock markets take a hit; yields rise and the future pricing for interest rate cuts in the likes of the CME FedWatch Tool are evaporating at a rate of knots. With confidence in the wider representation of risk falling away, the all too familiar seeking of a haven is sought and the USD Dollar, using the Dollar Index, makes a year-to-date high. Only a little of these moves can be sourced back to the posting of the US CPI yesterday.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Don’t Believe Everything You Read on the Internet

11 Mar 2026

Don’t Believe Everything You Read on the Internet

Probably the best way to describe what investors think about the Iranian war is to reiterate Monday’s trading ranges: $38/bbl in WTI, $36/bbl in Brent, $52/bbl equivalent in Heating Oil, $28/bbl equivalent in RBOB, and $51/bbl equivalent in Gasoil. Trading yesterday remained equally nervous and choppy. A drop of $14/bbl from high to low, precipitated by the US energy secretary’s social media post about the US Navy escorting an oil tanker through Hormuz, was quickly reversed when the post was deleted, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard refuted it.