There is something of an eerie, defensive quiet reverberating around oil prices this morning. It is not that we have not been here before concerning peace initiatives, which play out on the wires rather than face-to-face, it is just that it comes with compelling and competing stories on how the Middle East has hauled itself back to producing as much oil as it did before this current war in its region began.
No deal between the US and Iran is imminent; therefore, reciprocal attacks could resume at any time, sending oil prices back to where they came from: $110/bbl basis Brent. While tensions could flare up again, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are currently relatively calm. Riding the wave of this dubious tranquillity are the vessels transporting oil out of the region, and the market is duly reacting to these welcome developments.
In the spirit of oil always finds a way, it appears through various news agencies that more oil is navigating to market from the geographical Middle East region than at any time since the start of the war. We look at the remarkable shipping workarounds below, but ‘Kpler’, according to ‘Reuters’ estimate exports are now at 80 percent of pre-war levels.
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