Daily Oil Fundamentals

Reality Bites, Hard

30 Apr 2026

Reality Bites, Hard

Whether or not there is any truth to a story in ‘Axios’ overnight that the US is contemplating a fresh wave of airstrikes on Iran to break the current deadlock in negotiations remains to be seen. But oil prices need little encouragement to tempt them higher at present. After warning that the US blockade of Iran could run to many months, the US President is widely reported to have consulted the heads of major oil companies if there are any measures as to how any effect of a lasting closure of the Strait of Hormuz might be mitigated. The market can answer that for you Mr President, the answer is no, bearing in mind the eight-straight days of rally seen in Brent futures to achieve levels this morning not seen since March 2022, just after the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Adding to the Chaos

29 Apr 2026

Adding to the Chaos

After 55 years, it was time to call it a day—the end of a beautiful friendship. The UAE’s decision to leave both OPEC and OPEC+ can be described as a seismic change, though not in the short term. The UAE is one of only two oil-producing nations, alongside Saudi Arabia, with a substantial supply cushion.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Central Banks and President Trump are Hamstrung

28 Apr 2026

Central Banks and President Trump are Hamstrung

The main news of the morning is how the Bank of Japan left interest rates alone and stuck with the current rate of 0.75 percent. All rather uninteresting then. Well, no. More will be revealed during the press conference from Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the BoJ, but the shuttering of any decision can undeniably be traced back to the influence of the Iranian war. Keeping a hawkish stance allows for the Central Bank to remain prepared for any exaggerated inflation bearing in mind Japan’s vulnerability in having to import nearly all of its fuel needs.