Apart from those in the know, no one has the crystal ball. Still, presently everyone is worried about a potentially gruesome outcome of the animosity between Israel and Iran and its proxies. The major driving forces in the very recent past are being ignored.
Five or ten years ago, oil prices would have shown a very different and violent reaction to missile strikes and bombings in five countries. Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls. Take for example the September 2019 Houthi drone attack on the processing facilities of Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais that over a weekend rallied the Brent M1 futures price by nigh on $10/barrel.
OPEC+ will unlikely deviate from the current plan when ministers gather in the virtual space today, and it will start easing production restrictions to the extent of 180,000 bpd per month from December. Libyan crude oil should make an almost imminent re-appearance in the national market as an agreement to appoint the new head of the central bank was reached.
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