Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

15 May 2026

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

When the changes in the updated monthly oil balance reports are scrutinised in light of the price movement, the picture that emerges implies a relatively relaxed, or even nonchalant, attitude towards the potential adverse impacts of the stand-off between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz. When scanning through the latest dataset, one can only conclude, in awe, that oil prices should be significantly higher. There were massive bullish adjustments on the supply side of the equation and mildly bearish ones on the demand side. Any analyst worth her salt, however, is intellectually flexible enough to admit that she cannot be smarter than the entire oil fraternity; thus, she will start desperately seeking a possible explanation for the market behaviour.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

14 May 2026

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

The world will have to wade through another standoff in China before any sort of help from Beijing in ending the greater standoff of the Iranian war. There is no end of flattery and flummery between Presidents Xi and Trump at the start of proceedings and most opinion from a broad range of commentators is how the US President enters the negotiations with a much weaker hand than he might like. With various court decisions still ringing in his ears and pulling the rug from under Trump's tariff policies, Xi will be less inclined to be either brow-beaten or accept China is the weaker partner in this trade relationship.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

13 May 2026

Supply Disruptions Still Overrule Tentative Demand Headwinds

If the potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement is on “life support”, if Saudi Arabia, as reported by Reuters, has launched several unpublicised retaliatory attacks on Iran, and if Iran now defines the critical transport route as a significantly larger zone than before the war, then the odds of the conflict escalating and potentially causing further damage to oil installations and infrastructure in the region are growing. The risk of renewed tension sent crude oil prices significantly higher yesterday, although some of these gains are being given back this morning ahead of President Trump’s visit to China.