There is not much seasonal cheer going around in markets at present and the ‘Santa rally’ which was all set to be fuelled by a bullish take on the recent Fed rate cut, seems very much stuck in the chimney.
If the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions are classed as ‘tier-1’ data, then our market’s equivalent must be what the outcome might be for an end to the Ukraine war. Last week was dominated by these two drivers, well, at least from an oil perspective because their global reach has the potential to run amok with the sensibilities of risk takers as we approach a very edgy end of year.
The oil market finds it increasingly challenging to rally sustainably, at least this is what yesterday’s and, in general, this week’s performances imply. There is now a growing belief that more supply will be available soon. Since Heating Oil and Gasoil are driving the current move lower, it is a safe bet to deduce that this potential extra volume of oil will come from Russia.
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