It will be a goodly time before this report’s preamble, or in fact the whole offering, will be able to avoid any reference to Donald Trump and his ‘event horizon’ created by the war in and around Iran. The gravity, in both senses of the word, is not diminishing and the longer this saga goes on, the fewer opportunities there will be to escape its magnetism for all markets and the global economy.
Navigating the current political and economic waters is a gnarly challenge, and even this axiom sounds like an understatement. There are two military wars, with all their twists and turns, that markets are forced to cope with. In addition, economic and trade wars, together with the battle against inflation, add several more layers of uncertainty to forming a reliable view of the state of the world. Yet investors are doing what they can to interpret developments as they unfold, which, most plausibly, means reacting to headlines.
Oil prices and those that set them remain remarkably unhurried or unharried in reaching for their bullish buttons despite some potentially supply-constricting news. There remains a virtual standstill in vessels passing through Hormuz, well at least those that can be tracked, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported it has again suspended operations after what it called additional “terrorist attacks” which came just days after operations resumed.
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