Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Fear Factor and Stock Drawdowns

20 Feb 2026

The Fear Factor and Stock Drawdowns

Ukraine and Iran are raising the prospect of a genuine, albeit possibly short-lived, disruption to oil supply. The more imminent danger is a potential US attack on Iran, although President Trump has described the ongoing talks as constructive. Yet his patience appears to be wearing thin over the lack of tangible progress, and he has said that the next 10-15 days will determine which path the US chooses in dealing with its Middle Eastern adversary.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Nvidia, the Author of Global Wealth

19 Feb 2026

Nvidia, the Author of Global Wealth

Given the suspense afforded to markets on whether the US will go ahead and strike at Iran, and the collective fear of oil prices chasing on beyond $100/barrel as a consequence, ought to stifle any stock market exuberance. Additionally, the split for the outlook in policy outlined in the FOMC minutes from January leaves an uncertain road to any sort of US Central Bank easing should also make for uncomfortable reading for bourse bulls.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geneva, The Centre of Diplomacy

18 Feb 2026

Geneva, The Centre of Diplomacy

It is greatly disturbing that warmongers find it tempting, and even necessary, to flex their muscles while negotiations over conflicts in which they are involved are ongoing. Russia regularly intensifies its attacks on Ukrainian targets, including civilians, whenever seemingly moribund peace talks get underway. Yesterday, as representatives of Iran and the US attempted to reconcile their differences in Geneva with Oman acting as mediator, the Persian Gulf OPEC nation deemed it timely to partially shut the crucial shipping artery, the Strait of Hormuz, for a few hours due to “security precautions.”