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Daily Oil Fundamentals

It's Complicated

26 Jun 2026

It's Complicated

It was always going to happen. The two key questions about any possible price rebound after three weeks of uncompromising selling pressure were the timing and the triggers. We now have answers to both. The jump took place yesterday and was precipitated by the inevitable, which has been difficult to acknowledge: namely, that the extended 60-day truce is fragile and vulnerable. As traffic began to normalise through the Strait of Hormuz, a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile near Oman, raising concerns about the sustainability of the relative calm.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk was not in Demand

25 Jun 2026

Risk was not in Demand

Yesterday was somewhat unusual. Risk assets in general trended lower, but, curiously, traditional safe havens during periods of turbulence, such as gold and bitcoin, also lost value. The pressure on equities, which reversed this morning, stemmed from the growing belief that inflation will remain sticky and that the US central bank, much to the chagrin of the country's president, will be forced to raise interest rates.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Cautionary Tale

24 Jun 2026

Cautionary Tale

It might be a forced parallel, but as the UK has gone through six Prime Ministers since leaving the European Union almost exactly ten years ago, the question arises: is reluctance or ego to cooperate, confrontational policies coupled with a bellicose narrative, and unsubstantiated optimism the most effective way to achieve one's goals, or does it more likely lead to unpredictability, mayhem, and havoc? Those who closely follow the ongoing nuclear talks between the US and Iran must surely ask themselves these questions.

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