Daily Oil Fundamentals

Past the Point of No Imminent Return

23 Mar 2026

Past the Point of No Imminent Return

Probably even for oil industry veterans, last week’s events and developments exceeded the definition of “unprecedented.” Geopolitical upheavals or wars around oil-producing regions or major energy hubs have always precipitated wild swings. Yet observing May/June WTI dropping more than a dollar in less than three hours last Wednesday, or the May WTI/Brent arbitrage collapsing by over $10/bbl in less than a day—only to rally by $8/bbl in the ensuing six hours—is beyond what can be explained away by anxiety or fear.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

De-escalation? Wishful Thinking.

20 Mar 2026

De-escalation? Wishful Thinking.

Although it is beyond human comprehension what exactly is happening in the Middle East or what the endgame will be, it seems that the potentates of major central banks are aligned in their views. Rising energy costs will result in renewed inflationary pressures. It is no coincidence that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank have all decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and that China’s benchmark lending rates have remained unchanged for ten successive months.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Inflation is a Fact, not a Possibility

19 Mar 2026

Inflation is a Fact, not a Possibility

Markets could barely give any attention to the Federal Open Market Committee and its decision, unsurprisingly, to keep interest rates on hold. Frankly, if it were not for how the United States puts its clocks forward before the rest of the world, it might not have received much attention at all. Such was the bagatelle-like spinning and pinging of oil price numbers. The 11 against 1 vote, Stephen Miran (a Trumper) obviously wanted a cut, noted that inflation remains elevated and trending way above the 2 percent target. Not that the higher than forecast PPI posting by the US Labour Department would have had any effect, but it justifies the FOMC’s decision to be vigilant.