As we head toward August, here in the UK it is known as the ‘silly season’ or more deliciously, ‘cucumber time’ in Europe. The summer period sees major public institutions such as Parliaments, courts and other news drivers closed leading to a period when light-hearted or oddball news dominates the headlines through a lack of anything serious.
Wars are complex adaptive systems, shaped by political, military, economic, technological, and human factors. As such, their outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Look no further than the Middle East or Ukraine. Or, after the weekend's events, the Middle East and Ukraine.
Wanton Iranian actions in the Persian Gulf, and now in the Red Sea, have fallen on fertile ground, with the US responding in kind. The Houthis' claim that they attacked two Saudi oil tankers has opened a new and alarming front in the conflict. The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would paralyse an alternative oil transportation route to the Far East, potentially disrupting almost 5 mbpd of Saudi crude that normally reaches its destinations without delays. Yesterday, Brent sliced through $100/bbl like a hot knife through butter.
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