Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ceasefire Increases Oil Movement Stasis

23 Apr 2026

Ceasefire Increases Oil Movement Stasis

The war in the Middle East has taken another turn, and arguably for the worse. Instead of trading missiles, drones and bombs, the new metric is how many ships can each side interfere with. After the US imposed its own blockade, it has now taken it internationally by intercepting 3 oil tankers in Asian waters, far from the Persian Gulf. Returning the favour, Iran has captured 2 container ships and IRGC gunboats have fired upon other vessels in and around Hormuz according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Oops!... He Did It Again

22 Apr 2026

Oops!... He Did It Again

 I expect to be bombing, because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. But we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go – President Trump. I don’t want to do that (extending the ceasefire). We don’t have that much time – President Trump. Today, all the spare capacity is behind the Strait of Hormuz, so the impact is very direct... The billion barrels of oil is now effectively baked in, because we have probably already lost 600–700 million at this stage. By the time things start moving again, it will take time to restore supply, which will bring the total loss close to one billion barrels. This is manifesting itself predominantly in Asian economies – Vitol CEO at FT Commodities Summit

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Clowns and Cunning Stunts, the Circus Has Extended its Run

21 Apr 2026

Clowns and Cunning Stunts, the Circus Has Extended its Run

The case for Iran’s hydra came back to haunt the peace process over the weekend, it is now difficult to know who the US should be negotiating with, the softer face of the likes of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, or the battle-hardened, hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Araghchi, described as a pragmatist and indeed, looked upon by the US as someone to do business with, seemed at the front of the deal in which the Strait of Hormuz was declared open on Friday. Whatever the Foreign Ministry was trying to achieve it was immediately undermined and refuted by what appears to be battlefield commanders. Forgive the long quote, but a piece in the Wall St Journal is so very eye opening.