This is the place where the previous month’s happenings are summed up, and conclusions are drawn about what they might mean for the immediate future. Notwithstanding the usual turbulence observed in September, the first part is comparatively easy. The second part is not.
There is something of an eerie, defensive quiet reverberating around oil prices this morning. It is not that we have not been here before concerning peace initiatives, which play out on the wires rather than face-to-face, it is just that it comes with compelling and competing stories on how the Middle East has hauled itself back to producing as much oil as it did before this current war in its region began.
No deal between the US and Iran is imminent; therefore, reciprocal attacks could resume at any time, sending oil prices back to where they came from: $110/bbl basis Brent. While tensions could flare up again, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are currently relatively calm. Riding the wave of this dubious tranquillity are the vessels transporting oil out of the region, and the market is duly reacting to these welcome developments.
Parameta Solutions, the data and analytics arm of TP ICAP, delivers global energy and commodities market data sourced directly from PVM. This empowers traders, analysts, and risk managers to optimise hedging strategies, price contracts and reduce risk exposure.
Discover more about accessing their energy, commodities, and real-time oil data.
Copyright © 2026 TP ICAP