Daily Oil Fundamentals

Another Wave of Hormuz Anxiety

11 Aug 2026

Another Wave of Hormuz Anxiety

In the early days of technical analysis many of us were besotted by the Elliot Wave Theory. Positing on recurring wave patterns caused by collective investor sentiment impulse, integrated with Fibonacci correlations, Elliot Wave would give an insight into developing trends. While elements of it still exist, the theory is now debunked by most because of the subjective values, applications and more importantly how the waves were read.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Hotel California in Iran

10 Aug 2026

Hotel California in Iran

Hope for a ceasefire in the Middle East and the complete, or at least partial, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was not exactly dashed last week, but once again, promises of an imminent deal proved premature. President Trump called off a decisive military attack on Iran a week ago because “the perimeter of a deal has been agreed to.” His Treasury Secretary was quick to assure markets on Tuesday that “freedom of movement” was only hours away.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

So Much for Significant Progress

07 Aug 2026

So Much for Significant Progress

Oil prices, like those of any other asset, are influenced by a blend of perception (hope, belief, and expectations) and hard facts. A clear direction can be identified with relative confidence when the two converge, which is currently not the case in the Middle East. Tuesday's optimism about an imminent agreement between the US and Iran, as well as between Oman and Iran, that could lead to the unconditional—or at least partial—reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is fading fast.

Insights

Daily Oil Fundamentals