Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

11 Feb 2026

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

Perhaps the culprit is the annual industry gathering in London, but oil, compared with recent weeks and months, was uncharacteristically subdued yesterday. No doubt, as market players rub shoulders, the centrepiece of discussions is the brewing tension between Iran and the US and whether nuclear talks between the traditional adversaries might break down, leading to actual supply disruptions, potentially including the feared closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While rhetoric remains belligerent at times, there are no signs, at least for now, of escalation, and the US President believes that Iran will ultimately want to strike a deal on its nuclear missile programme.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

10 Feb 2026

Iran Still Smothers All Considerations

When in doubt, pick a Sun Tzu quote. ‘All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.’ Landing on an enemy, or even an ally, with an intercontinental ballistic loud hailer with demands that stretch beyond anything that can be granted until negotiation brings a favourable outcome to the US President, is a solid and well-trodden play. The Chinese general’s historical observation is made almost complete as the outcome of the US/Iran talks in Oman remains unclear and grows more so every day.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Omnipresent Unease and Anxiety

09 Feb 2026

Omnipresent Unease and Anxiety

When set against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or Hamas’s terrorist assault on Israeli civilians in 2023—followed by the devastation of Gaza, a US strike on Iran’s nuclear capability, the surreal “Liberation Day” announcement last April, and the abduction of the leader of an OPEC member—this latest eventful five-day period looks something of a damp squib. Yet trading conditions were vicious, with asset prices whipped around chaotically, as the constant shifts in the investment climate, unlike the meteorological one, show no sign of being a hoax.