Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

24 Feb 2026

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

Our market participants are forced to hang around the Iran street corner as would disgruntled teenagers waiting for something to do. It is hard to squeeze out any more words on the subject of ‘will he?’ or ‘won’t he?’ as Donald Trump keeps us guessing on his military intentions towards the Islamic State. Oil’s fraternity would do well to take heed of the many and varied influences that are pressing in on the edges of importance, but none can breach the bubble of binary thinking dominating price considerations.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Week of Futile Diplomacy

23 Feb 2026

A Week of Futile Diplomacy

A huge amount of ink has been spilt recently describing the perpetually evolving state of affairs in the two global hotspots that keep the oil fraternity on the edge of its seat. Last week’s events imply that the focus will firmly remain on Ukraine and Iran in the foreseeable future. The two major crude oil contracts, WTI and Brent, rallied to their highest levels since last July and clocked weekly gains of 5.5% and 6% respectively.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Fear Factor and Stock Drawdowns

20 Feb 2026

The Fear Factor and Stock Drawdowns

Ukraine and Iran are raising the prospect of a genuine, albeit possibly short-lived, disruption to oil supply. The more imminent danger is a potential US attack on Iran, although President Trump has described the ongoing talks as constructive. Yet his patience appears to be wearing thin over the lack of tangible progress, and he has said that the next 10-15 days will determine which path the US chooses in dealing with its Middle Eastern adversary.