Daily Oil Fundamentals

Uncertainty Keeps Ruling

18 May 2026

Uncertainty Keeps Ruling

A soundbite or catchphrase has been permeating Wall Street these days, weeks and months, which some might call cynical or even arrogant. It goes along the lines of: “The biggest risk to equities currently is that there is not enough risk-taking.” Well, a reality check duly arrived on Friday, which some might find surprising and others long overdue. All the major stock indices lost value on Friday and over the week. The MSCI All-Country Index retreated 1.5% on the last day of the week, the same as the Nasdaq Composite Index.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

15 May 2026

No Anxiety About Stock Depletion

When the changes in the updated monthly oil balance reports are scrutinised in light of the price movement, the picture that emerges implies a relatively relaxed, or even nonchalant, attitude towards the potential adverse impacts of the stand-off between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz. When scanning through the latest dataset, one can only conclude, in awe, that oil prices should be significantly higher. There were massive bullish adjustments on the supply side of the equation and mildly bearish ones on the demand side. Any analyst worth her salt, however, is intellectually flexible enough to admit that she cannot be smarter than the entire oil fraternity; thus, she will start desperately seeking a possible explanation for the market behaviour.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

14 May 2026

May We Have an Iran Deal Please? Not a Microchip One

The world will have to wade through another standoff in China before any sort of help from Beijing in ending the greater standoff of the Iranian war. There is no end of flattery and flummery between Presidents Xi and Trump at the start of proceedings and most opinion from a broad range of commentators is how the US President enters the negotiations with a much weaker hand than he might like. With various court decisions still ringing in his ears and pulling the rug from under Trump's tariff policies, Xi will be less inclined to be either brow-beaten or accept China is the weaker partner in this trade relationship.