No doubt the true nature of the peace overtures currently correcting oil prices will emerge after the US Mid-Term election result is revealed. There will be reams of opinion to sift through, including ours, but predictors of election results we are not and believe rather cynically that US voters are now in the habit of not telling the truth to pollsters.
The recency effect, which leads people to place disproportionate weight on recent events, may make it seem as though global equities were in freefall last month. After all, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index lost about $2 trillion in value (-5.3%) over the course of the month, as investors grew increasingly doubtful that AI spending would ultimately deliver healthy returns.
It is open to interpretation why the Fed did not touch interest rates just days before the midterm elections. What appears certain is that it will be tempted to raise them at the next FOMC meeting. The pivotal headline and core PCE readings came in line with expectations, at 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively.
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