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Daily Oil Fundamentals

Trading Places

03 Jul 2026

Trading Places

Every price move eventually comes to an end, and the current downtrend will reverse as well. Yet it would be foolish to believe that yesterday's welcome rebound in crude oil contracts from the day's lows marked the beginning of such a U-turn.

Although Russia is unable to contribute meaningfully to global supply, as it is itself forced to import refined products from India to ensure adequate domestic availability, developments related to the Strait of Hormuz, summarised below, continue to signal increasing crude oil availability from the Middle East.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Contemplation and Drift

02 Jul 2026

Contemplation and Drift

Oil prices are continuing to hang around on the street corner of trading with little to inspire them other than watch the latest act in the tragedy of the US/Iran war. The latest talks in Doha are drawing to a close with a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying “positive progress” was made on issues relating to the MoU. Yet Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister admitted that no direct talks took place, and while US Vice President Vance mouthed on negotiations going well, his comments were still laden with threats as to what might happen if a path to peace was not found.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Worries About the Middle East

01 Jul 2026

No Worries About the Middle East

The first quarter of the year ended with palpable anxiety. The second quarter produced a spectacular reversal in both sentiment and prices. It appears that investors have placed their faith in an amicable relationship between a mercurial US president and in an oppressive regime waging an existential fight against its adversaries. Simply put, confidence is so strong that tensions between Iran and the US and Israel will be kept under the cosh, and that the Strait of Hormuz, the Alpha and Omega of all that went wrong in the first quarter, will gradually reopen, that stock markets staged a magnificent rally during the second quarter, reaching all-time highs several times in the process, greatly aided by the US technology sector.

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