Daily Oil Fundamentals

In Perpetual Flux

20 Apr 2026

In Perpetual Flux

A successful politician is also a cunning linguist, and the words in his arsenal can prove more devastating than guns, drones, or sea mines. On Friday afternoon, Iran's foreign minister said in a social media post that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. The passage of vessels through the strait will follow the coordinated route already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran, Abbas Araqchi added in a post on X. Stocks and bonds rallied, and oil was pushed over the precipice. The pressure intensified when the US President declared that he expected the Iran deal “soon.”

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Confusion Rules

17 Apr 2026

Confusion Rules

There are likely three main reasons why oil prices rallied yesterday, notwithstanding the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced in the afternoon. First, while it is undeniably a welcome move, it is temporary, and Hezbollah, which both Israel and the Lebanese government want to disarm, was lukewarm and ambivalent in its comments on the agreement. Second, the ultimate Israeli goal of removing the oppressive and hardline Iranian regime is still far from being accomplished. Third, the temporary ceasefire will not automatically lead to a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, at least not immediately. Adding to this, the US–Iran ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, and the US blockade of the Strait remains intact.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Duplicitous Headlines

16 Apr 2026

Duplicitous Headlines

Harvey Dent is a fictional character from the world of DC Comics with a nickname of ‘Two-Face’. He is a tragic figure, burdened with a good-looking half of a face, one which seems to represent truth and decency, while the other is scarred, burned with acid and has a personality of an insane criminal. Do not headline and political statements feel as if we are dealing with our own ‘Two-Face’ every day? Yesterday a shouty headline, and sourced to AP, said that the US and Iran had agreed in principle on extended the current truce. Twenty minutes later, and sourced from Axios, a complete counter-headline said the US had not agreed to any extension.