Daily Oil Fundamentals

Breathing Space

08 Apr 2026

Breathing Space

As a two-week ceasefire has been agreed, the market reaction has been textbook: equities are experiencing a relief rally, while oil, on the promise of traffic resuming through the Strait, is in freefall. In theory, the 10–13 mbpd of crude oil and product supply stranded behind the Strait should now be gradually released. Whether the pre-March status quo will be re-established depends entirely on whether the truce can be turned into a permanent peace during the negotiations in Pakistan.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

07 Apr 2026

Is Tonight Really the Night that Anything Changes?

The damage being done in the war around the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is not just on localised infrastructure, for there drips a continued narrative of how further conflict will not just damage the soft indicators of confidence but actual physical metrics. The world may no longer be complacent or delusional in how long the war lasts or at least the longevity of its aftereffects, but the bite of increased energy prices is being felt across the globe, even within the insulated economy of the United States.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Last Month

02 Apr 2026

Last Month

By any standard, the month of March was shocking, unprecedented, turbulent, vicious, and nightmarish—take your pick. The returns of the five major oil futures and options contracts were eye-watering. They are summarised in the table below, with rollovers arbitrarily taking place on the penultimate trading day of March.