Dignity and ego play a more important role in shaping the outcome of the Iranian conflict than pragmatism. There is no appetite, or, to rephrase it, there is a disappointing reluctance on both sides, to resume negotiations, which might just nudge the adversaries towards a tentative armistice.
Prepare yourself for the long game. Can there really be any other conclusion than this war will enter the ‘never-ending’ category after Donald Trump spoke at the weekend? Stumping (such a marvellous American term) for votes at a political rally in the suburbs of New York, the US President in his normal unabashed style paid no reference to his promise of a short, sharp war or to his famed ‘drill, baby drill’ and the promise of lower oil prices.
Uncertainty naturally prevailed last week, simply because there are two conflicts taking place simultaneously close to, or in, oil-producing and refining regions, with ambiguous outcomes and with all the unintended, or, in fact, intended, consequences for the global economy. One need not be an expert in the field to conclude that, without these hostilities, oil prices would be lower.
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