Daily Oil Fundamentals

Hotel California in Iran

10 Aug 2026

Hotel California in Iran

Hope for a ceasefire in the Middle East and the complete, or at least partial, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was not exactly dashed last week, but once again, promises of an imminent deal proved premature. President Trump called off a decisive military attack on Iran a week ago because “the perimeter of a deal has been agreed to.” His Treasury Secretary was quick to assure markets on Tuesday that “freedom of movement” was only hours away.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

So Much for Significant Progress

07 Aug 2026

So Much for Significant Progress

Oil prices, like those of any other asset, are influenced by a blend of perception (hope, belief, and expectations) and hard facts. A clear direction can be identified with relative confidence when the two converge, which is currently not the case in the Middle East. Tuesday's optimism about an imminent agreement between the US and Iran, as well as between Oman and Iran, that could lead to the unconditional—or at least partial—reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is fading fast.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Strait Answer on a Deal Yet

06 Aug 2026

No Strait Answer on a Deal Yet

The many faceted discussions centred around the Strait of Hormuz seems stuck in some sort of temporal loop. Since Monday, the US President has promised an opening of the most written about waterway, and yet we wait. The other intriguing and confusing asset to this conundrum is the deal-making between Iran and Oman and how the routes in and out of the Persian Gulf will be policed. Mixed media sources are more than suggesting that Iran will be in control of inbound vessels with the opposite for Oman.

Insights

Daily Oil Fundamentals