Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Worries About the Middle East

01 Jul 2026

No Worries About the Middle East

The first quarter of the year ended with palpable anxiety. The second quarter produced a spectacular reversal in both sentiment and prices. It appears that investors have placed their faith in an amicable relationship between a mercurial US president and in an oppressive regime waging an existential fight against its adversaries. Simply put, confidence is so strong that tensions between Iran and the US and Israel will be kept under the cosh, and that the Strait of Hormuz, the Alpha and Omega of all that went wrong in the first quarter, will gradually reopen, that stock markets staged a magnificent rally during the second quarter, reaching all-time highs several times in the process, greatly aided by the US technology sector.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

It's Complicated

26 Jun 2026

It's Complicated

It was always going to happen. The two key questions about any possible price rebound after three weeks of uncompromising selling pressure were the timing and the triggers. We now have answers to both. The jump took place yesterday and was precipitated by the inevitable, which has been difficult to acknowledge: namely, that the extended 60-day truce is fragile and vulnerable. As traffic began to normalise through the Strait of Hormuz, a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile near Oman, raising concerns about the sustainability of the relative calm.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk was not in Demand

25 Jun 2026

Risk was not in Demand

Yesterday was somewhat unusual. Risk assets in general trended lower, but, curiously, traditional safe havens during periods of turbulence, such as gold and bitcoin, also lost value. The pressure on equities, which reversed this morning, stemmed from the growing belief that inflation will remain sticky and that the US central bank, much to the chagrin of the country's president, will be forced to raise interest rates.

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