Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Gloves are Off

03 Apr 2025

The Gloves are Off

Markets are normally influenced by a wealth of factors. The weekly statistics from the EIA on US oil inventories are one of them. The late report showed a surprise build in crude oil stocks, which, in hindsight was not really unexpected. Imports grew by 1 mbpd, chiefly from Canada, as the anxiety level on import duties remained elevated throughout the week. This jump led to an increase in commercial inventories, even though gasoline stockpiles declined, and distillate inventories remained broadly unchanged.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Tariffs

02 Apr 2025

Tariffs

Well, here we are. Finally, ‘Liberation Day’ is upon us and whether it will turn out to be an inflection point in the progress of world trade, a complete ‘cry wolf’ dud, or something in between will only be revealed from the Rose Garden of the White House at 8pm GMT. In his run up to the Presidency, Donald Trump’s tariff manifesto was something easily understood, with a 10% sweep on all imports and a threat to China of 20% to 60%, the world and its markets at least had some parameters.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Unanswered Questions

01 Apr 2025

Unanswered Questions

Two months into the new USA Administration’s activities, unpredictability keeps ruling. Sabre-rattling continued last month, and threats were flying around all over the place. Several, closely or loosely related questions need answering, possibly a challenging undertaking. Whilst it is implausible that reassuring answers will be provided any time soon, it is becoming slightly clearer what to expect from the US in the foreseeable future in foreign politics, the economy and oil.