Wars are complex adaptive systems, shaped by political, military, economic, technological, and human factors. As such, their outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Look no further than the Middle East or Ukraine. Or, after the weekend's events, the Middle East and Ukraine.
Wanton Iranian actions in the Persian Gulf, and now in the Red Sea, have fallen on fertile ground, with the US responding in kind. The Houthis' claim that they attacked two Saudi oil tankers has opened a new and alarming front in the conflict. The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would paralyse an alternative oil transportation route to the Far East, potentially disrupting almost 5 mbpd of Saudi crude that normally reaches its destinations without delays. Yesterday, Brent sliced through $100/bbl like a hot knife through butter.
Four vessels were attacked near Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal on July 17th, 19th, and 20th as it is not only the war in Iran where the gloves seem to be coming off. Ukraine has now upped the ante in its attacks on Russia and seems prepared to deliver collateral damage to not only internationally flagged vessels, but to the assets of Kazakhstan which has been forced to halt pipeline supplies through the CPC.
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