Daily Oil Fundamentals

To Flow or not to Flow

29 Jul 2026

To Flow or not to Flow

Our market remains in a state of confusion. We discuss below the possible reasons for the unprecedented divergence between crude oil and refined products, a chasm that widened significantly yesterday. The Heat/WTI differential reached a fresh record high of $95/bbl, as WTI fell by well over $3/bbl (Brent's decline was even steeper), while Heating Oil gained the equivalent of $1.65/bbl. The same trend can be observed in the RBOB crack, which settled above $61/bbl, also a record high.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Not So Silly a Season

28 Jul 2026

Not So Silly a Season

As we head toward August, here in the UK it is known as the ‘silly season’ or more deliciously, ‘cucumber time’ in Europe. The summer period sees major public institutions such as Parliaments, courts and other news drivers closed leading to a period when light-hearted or oddball news dominates the headlines through a lack of anything serious.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Only Constant is Unpredictability

27 Jul 2026

The Only Constant is Unpredictability

Wars are complex adaptive systems, shaped by political, military, economic, technological, and human factors. As such, their outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Look no further than the Middle East or Ukraine. Or, after the weekend's events, the Middle East and Ukraine.

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Daily Oil Fundamentals