Daily Oil Fundamentals

Euphoria and Optimism Prevail

29 Jun 2026

Euphoria and Optimism Prevail

It is best to cite the weekly closing prices as an overture to this note. The changes speak volumes, but at this point, it is not entirely clear what they are telling us. The differences between crude oil and product prices are somewhat perplexing. Both WTI and Brent fell by around 10% last week. The front-month Brent spread has performed a handbrake turn, diving from a backwardation of more than 50 cents/bbl to a contango of 61 cents/bbl week on week.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

It's Complicated

26 Jun 2026

It's Complicated

It was always going to happen. The two key questions about any possible price rebound after three weeks of uncompromising selling pressure were the timing and the triggers. We now have answers to both. The jump took place yesterday and was precipitated by the inevitable, which has been difficult to acknowledge: namely, that the extended 60-day truce is fragile and vulnerable. As traffic began to normalise through the Strait of Hormuz, a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile near Oman, raising concerns about the sustainability of the relative calm.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk was not in Demand

25 Jun 2026

Risk was not in Demand

Yesterday was somewhat unusual. Risk assets in general trended lower, but, curiously, traditional safe havens during periods of turbulence, such as gold and bitcoin, also lost value. The pressure on equities, which reversed this morning, stemmed from the growing belief that inflation will remain sticky and that the US central bank, much to the chagrin of the country's president, will be forced to raise interest rates.

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Daily Oil Fundamentals