Daily Oil Fundamentals

Whom to Believe?

27 Feb 2026

Whom to Believe?

It is a well-known and widely accepted mantra that the best traders, by and large, thrive in a volatile trading environment. However, as it turns out, there are several types of volatility, and yesterday’s violent price movement was nothing short of unmanageable. It is beyond comprehension how anyone, perhaps apart from flies on the walls of conference rooms in Geneva hotels, could have successfully ridden the wave of uncertainty precipitated by the Iran–US nuclear talks.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Will Tomorrow Prove Iranian Judgment Day?

25 Feb 2026

Will Tomorrow Prove Iranian Judgment Day?

It is notable that, notwithstanding yesterday’s retreat, outright prices are holding up resiliently, with Brent settling above the $70/bbl mark for the fifth consecutive trading session. Attacks on Russian infrastructure, the halt of oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia on the southern leg of the Friendship pipeline, the utter uncertainty surrounding the US plan regarding Iran, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resultant anxiety over a possible distillate shortage are the main reasons.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

24 Feb 2026

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

Our market participants are forced to hang around the Iran street corner as would disgruntled teenagers waiting for something to do. It is hard to squeeze out any more words on the subject of ‘will he?’ or ‘won’t he?’ as Donald Trump keeps us guessing on his military intentions towards the Islamic State. Oil’s fraternity would do well to take heed of the many and varied influences that are pressing in on the edges of importance, but none can breach the bubble of binary thinking dominating price considerations.