Daily Oil Fundamentals

Two Elections: Are They Critical?

26 Oct 2026

Two Elections: Are They Critical?

As usual, last week had a lot to digest. The bond market cooled off, especially in the US. The 10-year yield fell back below 5%, retreating from the multi-decade peak of 5.365% registered at the beginning of October. The retreat, however, did not reflect improved inflation expectations. Judging by the relentless increase in oil prices, inflation will accelerate further. The reason for the correction was that Treasury bonds fulfilled their classic role as a safe haven when equity markets sent out ominous signals, as was the case last week.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

AI Doubts, Peace Doubts

23 Oct 2026

AI Doubts, Peace Doubts

The recent inverse relationship between equities and oil was on full display yesterday. Global stocks, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, weakened considerably. Fears about the sustainability of the AI craze are ominously mounting. The trigger for yesterday’s rout was Meta, as the Facebook owner warned of the need to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years as the AI race intensifies. To add insult to injury, weekly US jobless claims fell to a 57-year low, bearing witness to a solid labour market that will not stand in the way of further rate hikes should persistent inflationary pressures warrant them.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Mid-Terms on the Mind

22 Oct 2026

Mid-Terms on the Mind

The combination of an IEA pledge to release more oil from strategic petroleum reserves if needed, a high-level Iran-Pakistan meeting, and the reappearance of Russian diesel on the international market provided a convenient excuse for profit-taking. After Brent's rally to $112/bbl, even tentative signs of additional supply or diplomatic progress were enough to tempt traders with a bullish bias to bank some profits.

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Daily Oil Fundamentals