Daily Oil Fundamentals

Too Early to Release Your Seat Belt

17 Mar 2026

Too Early to Release Your Seat Belt

Such constant gyration in prices and indeed emotion have become something of the everyday. It is always intriguing that at low oil prices movements are measured in dollars per barrel, but at inflated levels they are measured in percentages. A three percent move at $60 is hardly as headline grabbing as a similar move at $100/barrel, yet such is the human insistence on qualified measurement. This is why the Israel/US war on Iran causes such knuckle cracking as we sit in front of our screens and try to apply logic to an unfathomable issue.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Operation Epic Failure

16 Mar 2026

Operation Epic Failure

Perhaps the US was emboldened by its sensationally nimble military action against the former Venezuelan president at the beginning of 2026 and grew confident that quick strikes on Iran would suffice to remove the country’s oppressive and autocratic regime for the benefit of its people. Two weeks into the conflict, now undeniably a quagmire, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that launching military operations against Iran may have been a massive miscalculation, reminiscent of Putin’s misreading of Ukrainian resilience.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

13 Mar 2026

SPR Release or Not, Concerns Remain

Nothing alleviates the disruption to oil supply, production, and exports from the Persian Gulf. After yesterday’s International Energy Agency announcement about a coordinated effort to flood the market with 400 million bbl of oil over 90 days, equivalent to around 4.5 mbpd, and the US floating the idea of a waiver to the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, oil rallied back above $100/bbl and Heating Oil flirted with the $4/gallon mark, which is equivalent to $168/bbl.