Daily Oil Fundamentals

Will Tomorrow Prove Iranian Judgment Day?

25 Feb 2026

Will Tomorrow Prove Iranian Judgment Day?

It is notable that, notwithstanding yesterday’s retreat, outright prices are holding up resiliently, with Brent settling above the $70/bbl mark for the fifth consecutive trading session. Attacks on Russian infrastructure, the halt of oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia on the southern leg of the Friendship pipeline, the utter uncertainty surrounding the US plan regarding Iran, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resultant anxiety over a possible distillate shortage are the main reasons.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

24 Feb 2026

Iran, the Only Stream of Consciousness

Our market participants are forced to hang around the Iran street corner as would disgruntled teenagers waiting for something to do. It is hard to squeeze out any more words on the subject of ‘will he?’ or ‘won’t he?’ as Donald Trump keeps us guessing on his military intentions towards the Islamic State. Oil’s fraternity would do well to take heed of the many and varied influences that are pressing in on the edges of importance, but none can breach the bubble of binary thinking dominating price considerations.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Week of Futile Diplomacy

23 Feb 2026

A Week of Futile Diplomacy

A huge amount of ink has been spilt recently describing the perpetually evolving state of affairs in the two global hotspots that keep the oil fraternity on the edge of its seat. Last week’s events imply that the focus will firmly remain on Ukraine and Iran in the foreseeable future. The two major crude oil contracts, WTI and Brent, rallied to their highest levels since last July and clocked weekly gains of 5.5% and 6% respectively.