Daily Oil Fundamentals

Gaps Still Exist in Ukraine Peace Proposal

26 Nov 2025

Gaps Still Exist in Ukraine Peace Proposal

Some things are going up in the US: the stock market, unemployment, and the prices of groceries, shelter, and healthcare. The latter category reflects bleak economic data and, ironically, supports the former. Disappointing US September retail sales and cooling investor sentiment lay bare the impact of the so-called affordability crisis, which, in turn, raises the odds of interest rate cuts next month.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Volatility of the Probability of Interest Rate Cuts

25 Nov 2025

The Volatility of the Probability of Interest Rate Cuts

The world is about to play catch up on US data and today sees another bout of metrics from the previous months in which all information sat in the in and out boxes of US government agencies during the shutdown. Patterns are now sought from investors trying to affirm a newfound attitude that there will indeed be an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in December. It may be that market participants are more attuned because of the importance of individual attitudes, but there seems a raised willingness by Fed board members to be verbose in opinion on monetary policy.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Week of Heightened Uncertainty

24 Nov 2025

A Week of Heightened Uncertainty

Risk assets were out of favour last week. The two major factors that forced investors to be careful and pragmatic may still have a long-lasting effect on both equities and the oil balance and, as such, on the formation of oil prices. Despite Friday’s reversal, global and US equities finished the week lower because confidence in US rate cuts next month has taken a hit due to tepid labour market data. Oil prices also fell sharply.