Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk is Off, but For How Long?

13 Feb 2026

Risk is Off, but For How Long?

It is premature to draw far-reaching conclusions from yesterday’s sharp decline in risk assets. It may have been timely profit-taking, exacerbated by a technical sell-off as crucial upside barriers proved too strong to overcome on Wednesday. In equities, souring sentiment on tech stocks was the predominant cause for the plunge, while the release of today’s US inflation data may also have served as the pretext for the retracement.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

12 Feb 2026

Geopolitics Are Still More Powerful Than Data

It takes a worried oil market to shrug off a weekly EIA Crude inventory build of 8.53mb, even if it can be explained away by reduced refinery runs. Our market smells trouble and with Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Donald Trump in Washington yesterday and be included in any decision in the next steps for the US when considering Iran, recent history suggests that the Israeli Prime Minister did not come armed with conciliatory language and a beacon of peace.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

11 Feb 2026

Iran Tension Endures, the EIA Predicts Huge Stock Build

Perhaps the culprit is the annual industry gathering in London, but oil, compared with recent weeks and months, was uncharacteristically subdued yesterday. No doubt, as market players rub shoulders, the centrepiece of discussions is the brewing tension between Iran and the US and whether nuclear talks between the traditional adversaries might break down, leading to actual supply disruptions, potentially including the feared closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While rhetoric remains belligerent at times, there are no signs, at least for now, of escalation, and the US President believes that Iran will ultimately want to strike a deal on its nuclear missile programme.