Even though each week threatens to reveal a final solving of the never-ending and multi aspects of a Russian solution in oil market thinking, there is always a Narnia cupboard door allowing an escape into fantasy to gather more unforeseen and unexpected twists.
Some things are going up in the US: the stock market, unemployment, and the prices of groceries, shelter, and healthcare. The latter category reflects bleak economic data and, ironically, supports the former. Disappointing US September retail sales and cooling investor sentiment lay bare the impact of the so-called affordability crisis, which, in turn, raises the odds of interest rate cuts next month.
The world is about to play catch up on US data and today sees another bout of metrics from the previous months in which all information sat in the in and out boxes of US government agencies during the shutdown. Patterns are now sought from investors trying to affirm a newfound attitude that there will indeed be an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in December. It may be that market participants are more attuned because of the importance of individual attitudes, but there seems a raised willingness by Fed board members to be verbose in opinion on monetary policy.
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