Daily Oil Fundamentals

Susceptible to a Downturn? Implausible for now.

20 Oct 2025

Susceptible to a Downturn? Implausible for now.

In Thursday’s note, we drew your attention to the seemingly unquenchable thirst for both equities and one of the safest of havens, gold. These two asset classes usually decouple during economic crises, so the fact that they have been moving in lockstep over the past 9–12 months insinuates perpetual investor optimism. A troubling sign, nonetheless, is that gold has been outperforming equities, which can ultimately signal turbulence ahead.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

It is Always the Long Game with Russia

17 Oct 2025

It is Always the Long Game with Russia

The negative influence of trade wars is expanded on below, but the pressure oil prices have been undergoing lately have found a little more weight. The success enjoyed by President Trump in leading the Gaza peace deal has emboldened him to once again metaphorically look into the eyes of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and ask him, “well?” The recalcitrant Russian leader will obviously play for time, as his normal operandi historically suggests, and none can tell whether if another bout of soothing language and fawning flattery will appease the US President.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Overlooking Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

16 Oct 2025

Overlooking Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

One way to support the economy is to make money cheaper and incentivise lending by cutting interest rates, the mandate of central banks. The chair of the most important among them, the U.S. Federal Reserve, hinted as much on Tuesday when he pointed to a fragile labour market despite a resilient U.S. economy.