It always takes a day or two to diligently assess any earth-shattering event that has the potential to shake markets to their very core. In the current scenario, this refers to the impact of the Venezuelan crisis, precipitated by the US capture of the country’s former strongman and the appointment of his replacement—his deputy—rather than the legitimate opposition leader.
…and a less volatile and more predictable 2026. The second part of this wish (and even the first half, a sceptic would argue) might be bordering on wishful thinking, at least judging by the main events of the past year. Before attempting to foresee what 2026 may have in store for the world, it is undeniably useful, and by now traditional, to look back at how the past year shaped our lives from a social, political, and economic perspective, not least through the lens of oil. This is what we attempt to outline in today’s report.
Numerically, the amount of central bank decisions over the last couple of days might be considered a bout, but by no means have they caused anything like a rout. The only colour came from the Bank of England which cut by 25-basis points and only by a hair’s breadth margin of a 5 to 4 vote. Norway and Sweden along with the ECB left well enough alone and all have made clear on the need for caution in the face of difficulties ahead. Even the Bank of Japan’s increase of a quarter of a point this morning gets more press due to rates not being as high since 1999 than any great shift in the economic outlook.
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