Daily Oil Fundamentals

Investor Mood Relaxes While Conflict Tension Increases

20 Mar 2025

Investor Mood Relaxes While Conflict Tension Increases

Although the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates unchanged, markets allowed themselves to relax into risk and a better mood swept across many of the investment suites. Despite the FED now expecting unemployment to rise from 4.1% to 4.4% and GDP to reduce from 2.1% to 1.7%, investors seemed to focus on Jerome Powell’s post-match press conference where he warned on inflation likely increasing due to tariffs, but such acceleration would at present be “transitory.”

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ceasefire Abandoned, Ceasefire Agreed

19 Mar 2025

Ceasefire Abandoned, Ceasefire Agreed

In a way, the two major geopolitical hotspots had mitigating impacts on one another yesterday, the net result was a downtick in oil prices as the morning rally turned into a defensive move. Pandora’s box has been re-opened in Gaza. Trading accusations, Israel and Hamas blame each other for breaching the truce agreement, which has brought relative calm to the region since January.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ukraine and Gaza, Right Back Where We Started

18 Mar 2025

Ukraine and Gaza, Right Back Where We Started

Market participants and beyond are akin to teenagers gathering on a street corner, under a dimly lit streetlight, waiting for something that makes sense of the darkness. Today’s dose of anxiety comes in the form of negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin over Ukraine’s future. We discuss one aspect of Russia through an oil lens below, but logic suggests that Moscow will ask too much during the Trump/Putin phone call.