Daily Oil Fundamentals

Green Shoots Despite Freezing Conditions

17 Mar 2025

Green Shoots Despite Freezing Conditions

In a few years, we will look back at 2025 and conclude that whatever the outcomes of the Ukrainian-Russian war turn out to be or whatever the incumbent US Administration eventually accomplishes were obvious. Hindsight is a salient human characteristic, and we believe that predicting the future is a simple task. On the contrary, it is close to impossible and what will have seemed inevitable in the future is anything but obvious today.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

14 Mar 2025

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

The bankers of New York on their way home this evening, while gracing the wonderful bar in Grand Central Station will be crying 200% tariff tears into their Irish whiskey or French Bordeaux. For that is the new level of threat from Donald Trump as he retaliates to the retaliation of the EU’s plan for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey. And so the circular upping of the ante in a global trade war begins, and the world shivers in its wake. The tears shed by the bankers are not just for the impending price rise in their favourite commuting tipple.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Some Relief, At Last

13 Mar 2025

Some Relief, At Last

Correction was always coming but it was not obvious when. The answer arrived yesterday. Better than expected US inflation readings coupled with considerable drawdowns in US oil stocks attracted some money back to risk assets or at least those with short positions felt inclined to cover. As the Federal Reserve is trying to tame inflation without encouraging recession consumer prices rose in February less than expected. Headline inflation was +2.8% with the core reading at +3.1%.