Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk On, Risk Off, Repeat

06 Feb 2026

Risk On, Risk Off, Repeat

Well, after digesting a cornucopia of data, investors were swimming in a sea of red yesterday. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to leave lending rates untouched. The BoE’s decision came after a knife-edge vote, with monetary luminaries split 5–4 in favour of staying put; however, reductions are anticipated later this year as the Bank lowered its UK growth forecast. The ECB and the euro zone appear to be in as good a place as they can be in the current hectic economic environment. Unless core inflation falls meaningfully in the coming months, no further adjustment is anticipated.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Headline Bingo

05 Feb 2026

Headline Bingo

It is only the start of February and already our fraternity is tired of the banners which flash across screens trying to grab our attention in their own importance. What makes them more infuriatingly difficult to ignore are the many and varied A.I.-like tools which read headlines and are programmed to react. Or should we not offend and say coded? Debatable semantics aside, the multi-dollar moves in crude futures yesterday were authored by an initial flash that informed on how the US/Iran talks has been cancelled on Friday because of Iran’s unhappiness of both the venue and refusal to expand talks on anything beyond nuclear issues. Just over two hours later, and apparently under pressure from Gulf states, Iran reversed its position.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalate, De-escalate, Repeat

04 Feb 2026

Escalate, De-escalate, Repeat

Currently, there is no escaping the Middle East. One might even argue that Monday’s massive price fall was somewhat overdone and perplexing, as it was evidently based on the US President’s assumption that Iran was “seriously talking”. The content of these talks was never revealed. Since the US military reportedly shot down an Iranian drone yesterday as it approached one of its aircraft carriers—just hours after gunboats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to seize a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz—one might cynically assume that the talks were belligerent.