Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geneva, The Centre of Diplomacy

18 Feb 2026

Geneva, The Centre of Diplomacy

It is greatly disturbing that warmongers find it tempting, and even necessary, to flex their muscles while negotiations over conflicts in which they are involved are ongoing. Russia regularly intensifies its attacks on Ukrainian targets, including civilians, whenever seemingly moribund peace talks get underway. Yesterday, as representatives of Iran and the US attempted to reconcile their differences in Geneva with Oman acting as mediator, the Persian Gulf OPEC nation deemed it timely to partially shut the crucial shipping artery, the Strait of Hormuz, for a few hours due to “security precautions.”

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Eliminating the Impossible and Improbable Does Not Leave the Truth Sherlock

17 Feb 2026

Eliminating the Impossible and Improbable Does Not Leave the Truth Sherlock

Yesterday, we delved into a longer-term view where we argued that the contango being shown in the further reaches of the Brent futures curve outlines a hereafter of increased demand, with the various aspects of why that might be the case. Our internal discussions gave realisation on how it seems that predicting forward oil prices is more likely to yield success than ploughing through the global landscape getting stuck in boggy geopolitical situations, or ones that are akin to massive rocks and able to blunt any blade of logical deduction.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Possible OPEC+ Supply Increase and Iran in the Foreground

16 Feb 2026

Possible OPEC+ Supply Increase and Iran in the Foreground

The weekly closing prices do not tell the story of last week’s events. Our market had to contend with the refreshed monthly oil balance reports, all of which envisage a year-on-year increase in global oil stocks to varying degrees. A huge weekly build in US crude oil inventories, possibly a consequence of the January polar vortex, also caught attention. The diplomatic tug-of-war between the US and Iran has not resulted in military action so far; nonetheless, fears of supply disruption have helped keep oil prices stable. The next round of talks is scheduled for tomorrow in Geneva amid rising tensions. The US has sent a second aircraft carrier to the region, and its military, US officials told Reuters, is preparing for a weeks-long campaign against the Persian Gulf OPEC member.