Daily Oil Fundamentals

Oil Market is Standing on One Leg

26 Sep 2025

Oil Market is Standing on One Leg

To identify the supportive element of the oil complex, one simply needs to look at yesterday’s settlement prices. The daily changes, all in cents per barrel, are telling indeed: WTI -1, Brent +11, RBOB -70, Heating Oil +207, and Gasoil +174 (due to its earlier settlement; otherwise, it would have outperformed CME Heating Oil). As the successful Ukrainian campaign against Russian oil infrastructure continues almost unabated, the latest targets being the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, the invader has been forced to halt its diesel exports until the end of the year.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Mixed Messages and Drivers Will Give Over to Rumination

25 Sep 2025

Mixed Messages and Drivers Will Give Over to Rumination

The macro world will once again turn US-centric for the next couple of days as a very important docket drags eyes back to how the Federal Reserve might react in its interest rate decisions. With Jerome Powell’s robotic stressing of the importance of inflation and employment earlier this week, today’s quarterly PCE readings, Jobless Claims and tomorrow’s PCE monthly data will keep the greater markets in thrall.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Another Nudge from Eastern Europe

24 Sep 2025

Another Nudge from Eastern Europe

Geopolitics tends to have a more profound impact on oil prices in a falling market, simply because the temptation to react to potentially bullish developments and to take action is greater at the bottom than at the top. After four consecutive days of retreat, it is therefore understandable that Russia’s weekend air incursion into Estonia, following its earlier violation of Polish airspace last week, together with the ongoing and rather successful Ukrainian assaults on Russian oil installations, captured investors’ attention yesterday.