Daily Oil Fundamentals

It is Almost All About Perceptions

28 May 2025

It is Almost All About Perceptions

Empirical evidence of the last few months suggests that whenever oil and equities decouple, the former is influenced by supply-side developments. Yesterday stock markets rallied hard, bond yields tumbled, and the dollar strengthened. The return of risk appetite was the result of yet another U-turn in the US tariff charade. It took Donald Trump two days to reverse its decision to punish EU goods shipped to the US with a 50% excise duty and extend the deadline from June 1 to July 9.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Beaches Are Not the Only Place that See Flip Flops

27 May 2025

Beaches Are Not the Only Place that See Flip Flops

All markets crave consistency, much as economies of the world do. Ask the world's general populace what they largely require, and given time to consider, is an economy that charts left to right and mildly wanders to the upside. Boom and bust policies are felt by the tax paying civilians who have to endure the fallout from excessive monetary easing or the bouts of austerity to remedy them. As bad as that is all to contend with, it normally is a binary set of woe. However, instead of an economic world based around a pivot, the introduction of the Trump phenomenon means it is now based on a gimbal. Economic stalwarts and trusted reaction within them are upended, just take a look at US treasuries.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Determined Republicans, Determined OPEC+

23 May 2025

Determined Republicans, Determined OPEC+

The potential implications of Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill, which passed the House of Representatives yesterday by a single vote are discussed in detail below. Whilst the repercussions might be severe, investors put on a brave face yesterday and possibly took heart from the weekly initial jobless claim report, which showed a small decline suggesting a resilient labour market. Further encouragement came from improved US business activity this month as the Composite PMI which reflects on the health of the manufacturing and the service sectors rose to 52.1, up from 50.6 in April. In a notable development, import tariffs raised prices for companies and consumers implying renewed inflationary pressure.