Daily Oil Fundamentals

Bulging Oil Stocks, Economic Anxiety

22 May 2025

Bulging Oil Stocks, Economic Anxiety

The market behaved in a textbook fashion yesterday. After the CNN report about a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could lead to the loss of 1.5 mbpd, if not more in case of an escalation, shorts understandably covered. The rally did not last. This nonchalant attitude is most probably the function of an inauspicious economic backdrop. Of course, in case of an actual attack, the market will most plausibly challenge the year’s highs, but for now, perception was quickly replaced by reality.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

War and its Fear Always Changes the Narrative

21 May 2025

War and its Fear Always Changes the Narrative

While below we conduct a negative swipe at the efficacy of sanctions in the many faceted issues facing Iran and its oil supply, any attack on its nuclear facilities brings a whole new set of emotional connotations for oil prices. First reported on CNN overnight and taken up by all forms of media, it reports on the US obtaining new intelligence suggesting that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

False Hopes

20 May 2025

False Hopes

Investors’ optimism is admirable. Equities kept advancing yesterday, as the spectacular rally since April 7 continued, and they are within spitting distance of the record highs registered shortly after President Trump’s inauguration. The newly found buoyancy, which emerged less than a week after ‘Liberation Day’, is most plausibly based on the 90-day pause of the gigantic reciprocal tariffs on Chinese and US goods. Yesterday’s telephone call between the Russian and the US leaders further fuelled optimism as the US President announced that direct peace talks between adversaries will begin immediately.