Daily Oil Fundamentals

Determined Republicans, Determined OPEC+

23 May 2025

Determined Republicans, Determined OPEC+

The potential implications of Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill, which passed the House of Representatives yesterday by a single vote are discussed in detail below. Whilst the repercussions might be severe, investors put on a brave face yesterday and possibly took heart from the weekly initial jobless claim report, which showed a small decline suggesting a resilient labour market. Further encouragement came from improved US business activity this month as the Composite PMI which reflects on the health of the manufacturing and the service sectors rose to 52.1, up from 50.6 in April. In a notable development, import tariffs raised prices for companies and consumers implying renewed inflationary pressure.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Bulging Oil Stocks, Economic Anxiety

22 May 2025

Bulging Oil Stocks, Economic Anxiety

The market behaved in a textbook fashion yesterday. After the CNN report about a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could lead to the loss of 1.5 mbpd, if not more in case of an escalation, shorts understandably covered. The rally did not last. This nonchalant attitude is most probably the function of an inauspicious economic backdrop. Of course, in case of an actual attack, the market will most plausibly challenge the year’s highs, but for now, perception was quickly replaced by reality.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

War and its Fear Always Changes the Narrative

21 May 2025

War and its Fear Always Changes the Narrative

While below we conduct a negative swipe at the efficacy of sanctions in the many faceted issues facing Iran and its oil supply, any attack on its nuclear facilities brings a whole new set of emotional connotations for oil prices. First reported on CNN overnight and taken up by all forms of media, it reports on the US obtaining new intelligence suggesting that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.