Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Ukraine, Gaza and Oil Market Grind

07 Oct 2025

A Ukraine, Gaza and Oil Market Grind

The euphoria seen in stock markets once again fails to migrate influence into our market and oil prices languish in the shadow of competing drivers and a resigned feeling of ‘what next?’ The stock market gorges on its success with gargantuan self-investment, and OpenAI is once again the talk of the town. Last week, markets were left agog at the Nvidia $100 billion investment into OpenAI, but yesterday, OpenAI in turn reached a deal to buy up to 10 percent of AMD in order to secure the chip capability to rollout further extensions of its AI ambitions.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Persistence Optimism in Equities, Souring Mood in Oil

06 Oct 2025

Persistence Optimism in Equities, Souring Mood in Oil

Although stocks retreated and oil edged higher on Friday, the story of the week was the mirror image of these performances. A weak private US job market report, in the absence of official data, reaffirmed expectations that two more interest rate cuts are forthcoming this year. The astronomical tech valuations clearly bear all the hallmarks of FOMO and herd mentality. We do not doubt that this rally is unsustainable and that a nasty correction is in order once deteriorating economic data warrant it, as tariffs begin to bite.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Growing Supply Concerns

03 Oct 2025

Growing Supply Concerns

It is almost an axiomatic fact that when oil and equities diverge, the former is usually driven by supply considerations. This discrepancy was blatantly obvious yesterday. Equities gained further ground, scaling highs not seen before, seemingly unbothered by the dysfunction of the US government