Daily Oil Fundamentals

Another Week of an Oil Market in the Shadow of Equities

15 Sep 2025

Another Week of an Oil Market in the Shadow of Equities

The investment suite last week had something for everyone, for bulls, for bears and for the indifferent. It would be foolhardy to not recognise the apathy which is developing in markets outside those of immediate consequence to that of equities. Here, we often muse on the direct feed that links words emitted from high-ranking politicians to price movements.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

CPI, Employment and Oil Prediction Discord

12 Sep 2025

CPI, Employment and Oil Prediction Discord

The slight acceleration in the US month-on-month CPI reading for August was a little surprising after the softer PPI but just goes to highlight the complexity which faces the Federal Reserve and those of us trying to plot a future path for markets. Much can be made of, and indeed there is logic in, how analysts attribute the slight blip higher to the passing of tariff costs to customers, but given other drivers, the monthly data is largely ignored.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Short-Term Hedge Against Escalation

11 Sep 2025

Short-Term Hedge Against Escalation

The support that geopolitical events provide to oil prices is finite. When tensions rise in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East or around Russia, the market’s gut reaction is to cover short positions and build up some length. These moves are driven by perceptions, specifically, the belief that not only financial but, more importantly, physical oil supply will be adversely affected.