During the first Trump Administration, some were smirking, some were irritated, and for others, the 2020 election could not come soon enough. The common denominator, however, was that once the then-President was voted out of the White House, the 2016–2020 period would be relegated to the margins of history books.

How wrong that perception proved to be. The greatest political comeback in US history began at the end of January. The first nine months of the second Trump government sent its supporters into euphoria and its opponents into panic. Two key differences distinguish the rookie President from the current one. First, the incumbent government is far more organised and effective in implementing the President’s policies. Second, execution is significantly more ruthless than it was eight years ago. The “I am your retribution” campaign pledge is being fulfilled to devastating effect.

Indeed, there is something God-like about the current Presidency: among his supporters and within the government, Mr Trump is deemed infallible. While God’s infallibility was inherent, the US President over the past nine months has left nothing to chance. Like any autocrat worth his salt, he has moved swiftly to manipulate the legislature, capture the judiciary, suppress the press, and delegitimise science and education. The once-fashionable phrase “checks and balances” has ceased to exist. In other words, the self-correcting political mechanisms that helped make America great, strong, and a reliable partner over the past 80 years are being relentlessly dismantled.

With the third quarter of 2025 now behind us, this report is not intended as either a testimony to or a criticism of Donald Trump. Its purpose is to summarise the major developments of the past nine months. Nevertheless, his presidency is so consequential that he has become, to a great extent, the alpha and omega of everything we call global and domestic politics, economics, and trade.

He asserts success on every front, a hallmark of politicians who have lost touch with reality. He claims to have been the architect of several peace agreements (including the fictitious Armenian–Cambodian conflict). In truth, his foreign policy has largely failed. Russia’s nefarious invasion of Ukraine continues unabated and has even intensified, raising the geopolitical and geoeconomic temperature. Although he has taken a notable and unconditionally welcome step toward an Israeli–Hamas truce, several, perhaps insurmountable, obstacles remain to implementing the 20-point peace plan. The Houthis’ vow to target US oil exporters in the region is the latest example.

On the economic front, he can point to apparent success, buoyed by the stellar performance of US stock indices. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have returned 17% and 14% respectively, year-to-date. How much of this rally stems from the tech sector is debatable—and arguably irrelevant, given deregulation certainly played a role—but the fact remains: equities have soared in the first three quarters of the Trump presidency. This remarkable investor optimism persists despite the US hitting its trading partners with punitive tariffs not seen in 90 years, something markets, for now, dismiss. The upbeat sentiment also persists despite unemployment failing to revisit the Biden-era low of 3.4% (private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the biggest cut in more than two years), inflation remaining above the 2% target, and GDP growth hovering around 2%, below the 3.2% peak recorded two years ago.

The impact of import tariffs is being felt outside the US. Asia’s manufacturing sector is struggling, while Europe, already burdened by rising public debt, as noted in yesterday’s report, is also suffering from Washington’s inward-looking trade policies. Although stock markets remain buoyant, dark clouds are gathering, as illustrated by the 47% surge in gold prices this year. Safe havens are clearly in demand, raising the question of how long the US tech sector alone can sustain unequivocal support for the economy. Consider the returns of equities and gold: when the latter outperforms the 500 strongest US companies by a factor of three, can the economy really be said to be functioning smoothly? Put bluntly, the US economic recovery is uneven, and deteriorating hard data will eventually trigger a correction, whether gradual or sharp.

Oil has not been immune to US foreign policy manoeuvres. The absence of peace prospects in Ukraine, repeated assaults on Russian oil infrastructure, and sanctions on Moscow have disrupted supply. This is reflected in the comparatively strong performance of ICE Gasoil (+9% year-to-date, including rollovers) and CME Heating Oil (+10%). By contrast, RBOB is roughly flat, while the two major crude benchmarks are both down about 3.6%.

These year-to-date returns, distillates aside, signal sluggish demand and/or ample supply. Oil demand forecasts diverge considerably, but on average, they show this year’s figure revised down by 150,000 bpd between January and September, with annual growth reduced from 1.28 mbpd to 0.99 mbpd. Non-OPEC+ supply estimates have remained largely unchanged.

The accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts also points to a worsening oil balance. This is reflected in OECD stock forecasts, now projected at 2.879 billion bbls at end-2025, an upward adjustment of 90 million bbls since January. It aligns with the 58 million bbl increase in US commercial oil stockpiles over the past 3½ months, reported by the EIA yesterday. Shortage of middle-of-the-barrel products, synonymous with intense fighting between Ukraine and Russia, together with possible further sanctions on Russian energy, continue to prevent prices from collapsing, but weak demand and rising supply will ensure limited upside for the remainder of the year, while headline-driven trading precipitated by unpredictability will remain the zeitgeist of the Trump era.

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