Oil prices have suffered at that changing of minds among those producing reports on the state of supply versus demand. We will undertake a more detailed look in tomorrow’s report but yesterday started with a walk back by the International Energy Agency on the future role of oil in the energy puzzle. The IEA, a long-term critic of fossil fuels and advocate of alternative energies, noted the change in global governmental policies and a lack of progress in transition, which is touched on below, altered its forward outlook by saying oil will not plateau in 2030 and sees 113mbpd demand by 2050 up 13% from 2024. The change of heart means more than any current effect, but in some ways the Paris-based agency was saved any ridicule by the monthly report from OPEC. The cartel’s publication admitted it now sees supply and demand in 2026 being a close-run thing and with the most bullish of historical outlooks partially giving in to the reams of pixels dedicated to ‘glut’, bulls have been stripped of one of its most hopeful monthly allies.

There is always suspicion when Russia delves into the idea of peace talks, and the timing does seem particularly cynical given the current success the Russian army is having at the key Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. However, as reported by Sky, Russia is prepared to negotiate with Ukraine in Istanbul, but Kyiv has not responded to previous initiatives, Russia's charge d'affaires in Turkey has claimed. "If Kyiv shows political will, we are ready for such negotiations at any moment." With oil prices already in decline, as hollow as this offer likely is, it acted as an accelerative to the downside. This morning the pressure continues with the API Inventory data showing a 1.3mb build in US crude stocks. Not even the signing by the US President of a bill to bring about an end to the longest ever recorded US government shutdown is enough to spur much of an upward reaction.

It's a Cop30 out

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the treaty of 1992 which was signed in Rio de Janeiro as a pledge to combat the dangers of climate change, returns to the scene of initial hope in Brazil as Cop30. The trouble is the thirtieth incarnation of the world coming together in climate camaraderie is actually a gathering of failure with grouped messages of futility. It was rather summed up by a more than usually dour UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who eulogised that Cop had been supposedly a unity issue internationally and, in the UK, but "today sadly that consensus is gone". Frankly, and to be overly critical, one does wonder what progress could be expected bearing in mind the absence of China, India, Russia and of course, the United States. These biggest purveyors and consumers of fossil fuels would have to be strong-armed into attending something that would be construed against their corporate ‘national interest’ by a unified cause, underwritten by a powerful consensus. Cop30 is bereft of such influence. 

Within the UNFCCC, the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 specifically asks contributing countries to submit plans on how they intend to deal with greenhouse gas emissions. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are required for individual countries to submit roadmaps and timelines aligned with the Paris accord where global temperatures would be restricted to rise by only 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2025. The NDCs would have a lifespan of five years and on expiry another half-decade plan should be submitted by with even tighter control targets. The best that any of the few which submitted, for there has been sparsity in entries, and according to the Guardian, have been plans that would cut greenhouse gas emissions by about 10 percent by 2035; nowhere near the 60 percent cuts needed by that date if a maximum 1.5C target in global temperatures is to be achieved. The cold hard facts of economics are blighting Cop30, not just a change of heart or doctrine. Once again looking through the prism of the UK perspective, a very unpopular budget is about to be unveiled, therefore giving taxpayer money contribution to Brazil’s $125 billion target of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) would only lead to public outcry. 

Cop30 is sadly a joke, it is not just disinformation and bias to say so, its outcomes are already preset in failure. As well-intentioned as attendees may be, how can one not cock a cynical eyebrow to a phalanx of double standards. It is not just the hundreds of thousands of airmiles chalked up to get to some obscure place called Belém, it is beyond the finger pointing at such irony. It starts with the stunning hypocrisy of the host nation. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said "Cop30 will be the Cop of truth.” Would it be indecent to point out how his country is extracting fossil fuels at a greater rate than ever before? Elsewhere, in a revealing insight from the BBC, UN General Secretary General António Guterres told leaders in Belém that the failure to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C was a "moral failure and deadly negligence". This comes shortly after how in recent weeks the UN accepted that overshooting the target global temperature rise is "inevitable".

To give it the full handle, the 30th Conference of the Parties is blame-throwing tea party where just by showing up and making grand speeches absolves representatives of their own countries’ failings and is little more than greenwashing. There is not a citizen on this earth, including those on either side of this daily missive who do not wish a pollution-free future for the next generations. Hand wringing and mudslinging are not going to entice China, Russia, India or the US to attend any Cop meeting any time soon. At least their vested interests are laid out. Unless the zealot’s hated idea of ‘compromise’ ensues, and workable action devised, no matter how incremental, then these meetings will continue in the manner of a university debating society and be more of a waste in oxygen than the amount they are trying to protect.

Overnight Pricing