Taking a momentary drift into stereotype, it has always been the remit of the far left, or at least those that claim to be, to out-shout any argument that is disagreeable. Here in the UK, apart from the insulted 'swivelled-eyed conservatives' who had the audacity to express anything other than agreement to the latest 'Kumbaya' socialist fad; tax paying, self-helping majorities here, and mirrored globally, expressed opposition with quiet indignation. It really does not matter how we have arrived, but that 'quiet indignation' has learned from the screaming left and felt enabled to join in verbosely with the political cacophony and resultant zenith being one Donald J. Trump.

It was a good week for the US President, if indeed he is just that. The seal that sits on any podium or behind the shoulder of the commanders-in-chief, post-World War II, have announced the presence of the most powerful man in the world. Eighty years of outperforming every other country in military, economy, technology, research and export in pervasion of doctrine and cultural influence into every global corner by happy importees or by the vehicle of conquering soft empire, means the man at the top of the pole in the USA is the man almost in charge of the world. Of course, most presidents knew it, but exercised caution, well at least in public. This one is not so abashed.

No matter that Japan’s hand had been weakened by a domestic election, its acquiescence to a tariff deal of 15 percent has set the tone for a skittling of the pins that offered resistance. One might point back to the first being the UK and the deal being retrospectively astute, but London’s fawning and grabbing at the 10 percent deal was convenience in not having to add any more pressure to its woeful economic and political state. Besides, its trade with the US is nothing compared with that of Japan, and even more importantly, the European Union. Yesterday’s demeaning presence of Ursula von der Leyen, given forty minutes between Donald’s golf tee times, looked akin to a fly, caught in a web, asking the spider not to eat it. So much for who would blink first, the Eurozone closed its eyes and now hopes for the best. These are extraordinary triumphs. The political capital will return and be flowing into the US President’s approval rate, ‘Trump always chickens out’ (TACO) will once again be drowned out by the begrudging ‘at least he gets things done’.

The visuals that are created should not be underestimated. Mr Trump is a billionaire (well maybe, tax returns are scarce), a land baron, a media star and labelled by his detractors as a narcissistic power grabber whose will to win by using deal making as a marker of success borders obsession. Yet he sits comfortably in working people’s America, and possibly beyond, as one of their own. When visiting the site of the new Federal Reserve last week with Jerome Powell, he was all charm, but helped himself to a “well, I hope he does the right thing” in reference to cutting interest rates. Add then a win over the elitist of all, the Commissioners of the European Community, the vignette plays out that the ordinary man took the fight to the entitled on both sides of the Atlantic.

Of course, stock markets, particularly the US varieties love it. The S&P 500 scored five all-time highs last week, fourteen for the year and, based on this weekend’s news, that pattern will not stop. No matter that the issues of the huge 50 percent blanket tariffs set for steel and aluminium are unchanged, and that, according to the Financial Times, cracks are appearing in Japan and US’s interpretation of tariff trade deal. Markets will now assume that a long-term agreement with China will now be reached. Today sees a meeting in Stockholm, where negotiators will work to extend the current 90-day state of truce that expires on August 12th, but with Japan and the EU knocked off, the ever-bulls will not find it hard to argue that a full-blown state meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi will soon follow and permanent trade deal announced.

Oil futures last week for M1 in the main contracts all finished lower, WTI by $2.18/barrel (-3.24%, this included an expiry), Brent by $0.84 (-1.21%), Heating Oil by 4.68c/gal (-1.91%), RBOB by 5.64c/gal (-2.62%) and Gasoil by $11.00/tonne (-1.51%). Any short-term worries over supply brought forth from contamination at loadings from Ceyhan, Turkey or shipping permits that for less than two days halted CPC liftings in the Black Sea and the longer-term problems of reduced inventory in the United States were soon quelled as licences to once again resume oil programmes for partners of PDVSA in Venezuela were suddenly bequeathed by the US Administration. The move is hard to understand, “the U.S. government will not allow the Maduro regime to profit from the sale of oil,” the State Department told the Miami Herald, but given the heavy tax burden felt by oil companies in the South American country, the Trump vilified Maduro must see benefit. Whether or not Washington is granting the reprieve in order to help pay down the debt owed by PDVSA to American oil companies, or it is to sate the need for heavier crudes in the US refinery program, makes for a great debate. But the alarming truth, and to back up the argument of the international power of the US’s highest office, is the ability to directly manipulate the oil supply of another country.

Mr Trump’s growing success in trade negotiations may be born out of a need for the US’s trade partners to secure consistency. Every posted narrative that backs up a data metric from PMI to inflation in every country without fail mentions the concern over tariffs. Dot plots might be the remit of the Federal Reserve, but countries and companies need at least a glimmer of consistency to base borrowing and investment on. Bad deals are better than no deals then, and the biggest winner is The Donald. The US President will be emboldened, his political meddling in other nations will increase. He attached the recent 50 percent tariff attack on Brazil with conditions including dropping charges against President Lula’s predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who faces prison for his alleged conspiracy to undermine the 2022 election and Brasilia adopting a more lenient stance towards US social media companies. Indeed, before meeting the President of the European Commission yesterday, he said Europe "better get its act together" on immigration. Financial and political lines are now officially blurred, nations and markets must now expect more, not less of nuanced amendments such as seen in bill passing in the US. Nothing must be taken for granted, and if this is what six months looks like after Donald Trump took office, only a time machine can now tell what it will be after four years. By luck, or we do hope by judgement, Trump has laid out his cards like a poker professional, and love or loathe him it can only be greeted with a ‘well played Sir’.

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