Any fund manager worth his or her salt would confess that the three most significant factors they follow and the ones that have profound impact on the formation of oil prices are the underlying fundamental backdrop, which includes macroeconomic developments, the technical state of the oil complex and finally, positioning, which mirrors the views of money managers.
OPEC+ members set about a charm offensive yesterday with the big guns of the pact deployed in a show of unison. If tension exists between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the latter’s admitted non-compliance to voluntary cuts, it did not show as Russia’s Alexander Novak commented that the weekend’s decision “is positive for the oil market and helps stabilise it.”
Only the gullible would be the stubborn advocate of one of the alleged cornerstones of chart analysis, namely that history repeats itself and the same event would repeatedly trigger the same reaction. It has been evident on a frequent basis that a bearish occurrence would less likely trigger renewed selling in a falling market than in a rising one and vice versa.
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