Last week was something of topsy turvy one. Eventually, and unlike the wider suite, the oil market was not able to extract itself from being besotted by the Middle East, at times pushed on by the hope in equities, only to be finally sat down in an unchanged fashion by China.
The last of the week's most important data yesterday was good news and greeted as so. Unlike most contemporary readings in which data that miss expectations are happily seized upon as bullish mana, as all investor tourists believe time and again that this will be 'the one' that the Fed will not be able to ignore and impelled to cut interest rates.
The US CPI data came in within tolerance and the wider suite resumed its assumption of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in September. The CME FedWatch tool is still pricing the probability of a cut at 100% with 37.5% representing a 50-basis point cut and an overall 100-basis points cut for the balance of the year is also finding interest. The US bourses were, however, rather contained.
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