Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ukraine and Gaza, Right Back Where We Started

18 Mar 2025

Ukraine and Gaza, Right Back Where We Started

Market participants and beyond are akin to teenagers gathering on a street corner, under a dimly lit streetlight, waiting for something that makes sense of the darkness. Today’s dose of anxiety comes in the form of negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin over Ukraine’s future. We discuss one aspect of Russia through an oil lens below, but logic suggests that Moscow will ask too much during the Trump/Putin phone call.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Green Shoots Despite Freezing Conditions

17 Mar 2025

Green Shoots Despite Freezing Conditions

In a few years, we will look back at 2025 and conclude that whatever the outcomes of the Ukrainian-Russian war turn out to be or whatever the incumbent US Administration eventually accomplishes were obvious. Hindsight is a salient human characteristic, and we believe that predicting the future is a simple task. On the contrary, it is close to impossible and what will have seemed inevitable in the future is anything but obvious today.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

14 Mar 2025

The Master Chef of Tariffs Adds Spice to the Trade War Recipe

The bankers of New York on their way home this evening, while gracing the wonderful bar in Grand Central Station will be crying 200% tariff tears into their Irish whiskey or French Bordeaux. For that is the new level of threat from Donald Trump as he retaliates to the retaliation of the EU’s plan for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey. And so the circular upping of the ante in a global trade war begins, and the world shivers in its wake. The tears shed by the bankers are not just for the impending price rise in their favourite commuting tipple.