Daily Oil Fundamentals

Perceptions Outweigh Facts

12 Dec 2024

Perceptions Outweigh Facts

It is far from being set in stone that factors that pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index above 20,000 points and aided oil to rally more than $1.5/bbl yesterday will provide long-term support, but further gains in the immediate future cannot be ruled out. US consumer prices increased as anticipated—core CPI rose 3.3% on the year, and the headline figure was up 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool now puts a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut next week.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A News Rich Environment

11 Dec 2024

A News Rich Environment

It looks as if the Biden administration is trying to run interference with the idea that on gaining the keys to the White House, Donald Trump will put pressure on Ukraine to settle the war with Russia. According to a piece on Bloomberg, and repeated elsewhere, a new phalanx of sanctions is being considered on oil exports from Russia with a joint effort including the European Union that targets both the shadow fleet servicing the lucrative trade and eventual customers.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Risk is Back for Now

10 Dec 2024

Risk is Back for Now

The weekly Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC and ICE tell us how hungry financial investors were for risk in the recent past. It is not exactly forward looking but the day’s price action is usually a good indicator if this risk is palatable.