Daily Oil Fundamentals

Moody’s and China Dent the Détente Delight

19 May 2025

Moody’s and China Dent the Détente Delight

Despite a bump to proceedings caused by what appeared to be a breakthrough in the nuclear farrago playing out between Iran and the United States, touched on below, oil prices enjoyed an ultimately spirited last week and made decent gains. The ninety-day reciprocal cut in tariff setting between the two most important protagonists, thrashed out in Geneva by representatives from Washington and Beijing, eventually won out in sentiment allowing the main futures contracts to finish +2.5% in the crudes and +3.5% in products.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

When Unpredictability Becomes the Norm

16 May 2025

When Unpredictability Becomes the Norm

Markets, investors, and companies need certainty. Without it, investment is deemed too risky with all its economic side effects. With the Trump presidency, certainty has been AWOL. It is inconceivable that the daily U-turns, contradictory policies, and incoherent narratives are all part of the ’strategic uncertainty’ created intentionally to gain leverage in trade talks.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Cooling of Investors, a Cooling in Iran

15 May 2025

A Cooling of Investors, a Cooling in Iran

There is something of a stall occurring in markets this morning as the delight shown by pent up investors dissipates following the détente in tariffs between the US and China. Maintaining a bullish stance based upon the principle that the deal is not as bad as it could have been can only keep realism away for so long. Just because one part, admittedly the most important, of the global trading puzzle is temporarily solved, it does not mean the same will be true of all relationships.