Markets have felt the hand of the summer doldrums and none more so than oil. The tepid action of yesterday outlines a market that is slightly fatigued and while any number of the news agenda is able to push and pull prices hither and tither if accelerated, none are particularly fresh and are in the main already accounted for.
Like many, we have been expecting US politics to have a big influence on the outcome of how markets will finish come the end of 2024. Yet, not even the most battle weary and cynical hack could have imagined the turn that election campaigning would take on Saturday when an assassination attempt was carried out on the almost guaranteed Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
Economic data, especially if it is inflation and particularly if it is from the US, has an outsized influence on our market. As for the updated US CPI release, the most effective way to assess its impact is two clicks away. Go to the CME website and see how its FedWatch tool changed after the release.
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