Daily Oil Fundamentals

Another Nudge from Eastern Europe

24 Sep 2025

Another Nudge from Eastern Europe

Geopolitics tends to have a more profound impact on oil prices in a falling market, simply because the temptation to react to potentially bullish developments and to take action is greater at the bottom than at the top. After four consecutive days of retreat, it is therefore understandable that Russia’s weekend air incursion into Estonia, following its earlier violation of Polish airspace last week, together with the ongoing and rather successful Ukrainian assaults on Russian oil installations, captured investors’ attention yesterday.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Time for Discipline

23 Sep 2025

A Time for Discipline

The mixed messages surrounding when, if and how top-up tariff/sanctions might be placed upon Russia are starting to try the patience of any peace optimist or oil bull. While President Trump keeps his attitude of ‘after you ladies and gentlemen of Europe, please,’ on who might go first in applying any additional punitive action, further instances of oversupply emerge to keep oil prices pressured.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Justifiably Hesitant with Some Downside Bias

22 Sep 2025

Justifiably Hesitant with Some Downside Bias

If the oil market is deemed bullish because the complex remained stable last week, then it is so only tentatively. Conversely, if it is considered more negative due to the complete lack of willingness to approach significant resistance levels, that view does not rest on a firm footing either.