Daily Oil Fundamentals

OPEC's Hike is Diluted by More Pressing Issues

08 Sep 2025

OPEC's Hike is Diluted by More Pressing Issues

The decision by OPEC+ to lift production by 137kbpd as of October in the end came as no surprise, but because the increase is lighter than some had expected this morning’s response in an uptick in prices is how the extra flow of oil will not really affect proceedings for a while. Given the predicted paucity of Distillate production going into the colder months and a refinery turnaround season, the market deems such strength in the likes of Heating Oil, Diesel and their like a little more current than a probable burgeoning feedstock scenario next year.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Interest Rate Cuts are Shrugged Off by Oil Prices

05 Sep 2025

Interest Rate Cuts are Shrugged Off by Oil Prices

While the oil product price of Distillate is acting as something of a parachute and balloon, holding up the wider complex, the pressure being felt in Crude prices is a counterweight and while crack levels remain elevated, there are increasing stories and signs of a future where feedstock supply is unlikely to be a problem. Indeed, when we enter the refinery turnaround and maintenance season, it is difficult not to envisage Distillate cracks widening even more as processing will wane.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

There is No Shortage of Supply

04 Sep 2025

There is No Shortage of Supply

There are oil-related sanctions imposed by the US on numerous countries, and potentially lifting them would reassure those concerned about the tight oil balance and depleting global inventories. Yet, the US appears content with its punitive measures against perceived or actual adversaries such as Iran and India, and there is a reason for this. By the end of this month, eight members of the OPEC+ producer group will have completed the unwinding of 2.2 mbpd of output constraints.