Daily Oil Fundamentals

Fragile but Holding

25 Jun 2025

Fragile but Holding

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in the early hours of yesterday, missiles and mutual accusations of violations continued to fly back and forth — much to the chagrin of President Trump, who brokered the truce. He did not shy away from publicly reprimanding both parties for the disobedience. While a number of questions regarding the deal and in fact the effectiveness of the US strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains unanswered, the fact that the agreement is still in effect has been met with a massive sigh of relief.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Peaceful War, Warful Peace

24 Jun 2025

Peaceful War, Warful Peace

In yesterday’s note, we contemplated a gradual price decrease below $70/bbl if oil output and traffic in the Middle East is not disrupted as a result of the weekend’s US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. How wrong we were proven. Oil investors delivered a brutal verdict and after a very brief deliberation, they sentenced reluctant bulls to a daily loss of more than $5/bbl.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Escalation Instead of De-escalation

23 Jun 2025

Escalation Instead of De-escalation

Last week was characterized by ambiguity as investors desperately tried to evaluate the likelihood and the possible timing of a direct US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict after the Jewish state launched its first attacks on its arch-enemy on June 13. The rhetoric of the White House was not helpful and was even confusing and contradictory. Oil prices strengthened most of the week as fears of significant supply disruption rose. The negative economic impact of US strikes on Iran was mirrored in a sell-off in equities.