After a tumultuous week, which effectively brought the curtain down on global trade it is impossible not to draw parallels between the defiant US worldview and Brexit. Both nations believe that to a smaller or larger extent cooperation with other nations is more harmful than beneficial (and there is a growing number of countries subscribing to this point of view).
Whether or not it was OPEC+ intention to hide its revised output hike behind the melee caused by President Trump’s sweep of tariffs across the board of trade, be they for salient partners or not so, is conjecture, but it has not worked. The timing is frankly amazing, although there has been an inevitability to this action because trying to hold the oil price for the benefit of non-DoC members, losing market share and being undermined by the cheating actions of the same renegades needs a response.
Markets are normally influenced by a wealth of factors. The weekly statistics from the EIA on US oil inventories are one of them. The late report showed a surprise build in crude oil stocks, which, in hindsight was not really unexpected. Imports grew by 1 mbpd, chiefly from Canada, as the anxiety level on import duties remained elevated throughout the week. This jump led to an increase in commercial inventories, even though gasoline stockpiles declined, and distillate inventories remained broadly unchanged.
Copyright © 2025 TP ICAP