Daily Oil Fundamentals

Half-hearted Correction

10 Sep 2024

Half-hearted Correction

The message from China is simple but loud and reverberates throughout the globe. The country keeps struggling to incentivize spending and sluggish aggregate demand ensured that industrial producer prices fell by a forecast-beating 1.8% last month whilst consumer prices inflated 0.6%, below analysts’ expectations. Overnight data was equally disheartening: August exports exceeded expectation, imports underwhelmed, and the purchase of foreign crude oil dropped 7% on the year.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Rallies are from Transitory Headlines, but Sentiment has Changed

09 Sep 2024

Rallies are from Transitory Headlines, but Sentiment has Changed

There is no point in trying to get away from the fact that last week's oil performance was anything less than terrible. M1 WTI finished down $5.88/barrel (-7.99%), Brent $7.74/barrel (-9.82%), Heating Oil 13.65c/gallon (-6.06%), RBOB 31.57c/gallon (-14.27%) and Gasoil $46.00/tonne (-6.6%). All contracts made new 2024 lows and in the case of the US products, prices were printed that have not been seen since the pandemic year of 2021.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Rest for the Wicked

06 Sep 2024

No Rest for the Wicked

OPEC+ not putting 180,000 bpd of crude oil back on the market for two additional months achieved nought, as discussed below. A seemingly constructive weekly statistics from the EIA – ditto. How would you interpret an unchanged settlement in WTI following a 6.9 million bbls decline in crude oil and an 8 million bbls withdrawal in commercial oil inventories? Surely, red flags were raised. Maybe, the focus was on dismal demand figures as refiners supplied 1 mbpd less oil than the week before with proxy gasoline demand falling under 9 mbpd – hence the disenchanting RBOB performance.