Daily Oil Fundamentals

A Blanket of Unease Descends on Oil Markets and Indeed the World

18 Jun 2025

A Blanket of Unease Descends on Oil Markets and Indeed the World

The black hole of Middle East current affairs takes precept of all oil price thinking and nothing can break its gravity, with both meanings of the word intended. Our market is settling into a world where missile exchanges are commonplace but the cynicism of it being normal has yet to set in because of how easily the situation could escalate.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geopolitical Circle

17 Jun 2025

Geopolitical Circle

The reaction to unexpected geopolitical developments in the proximity of oil-producing regions, such as the current Israeli assault on Iran, follows a similar pattern. When the headline hits the screens man and machine (traders and algorithms) get rid of risky positions and the adventurous ones start building up length. Phase one was embodied in Friday’s jump to $78.50/bbl in Brent. As details start to filter through, the actual situation is assessed, which can be labelled phase two. Oil supply and production were ostensibly spared in the initial strikes, and oil fell from the summit but still posted considerable daily gains because of the uncertainty the weekend carried.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Inevitable is Upon Us

16 Jun 2025

The Inevitable is Upon Us

The escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran has for a while almost felt like an eventuality rather than possibility. This does not take away the remarkable reaction seen in oil futures prices in the early hours of Friday morning. There are some, including the occupant of this seat, who have questioned the wisdom of almost 24-hour trading in oil derivatives. There is a case for such a state of openness in the massive markets of forex, equity bourse indices, bonds and other of such voluminous ilk, but commodities and oil do not have such liquidity outside of the normal European/US trading hours.