Daily Oil Fundamentals

Rate Cuts versus Demand Concerns

02 Sep 2024

Rate Cuts versus Demand Concerns

To paraphrase Churchill: We used to be undecided (about which way the market might go). Now we are not so sure. Equities did broadly well in August, the MSCI All-Country Index gained 1.62%. The S&P 500 Index jumped 2.28% higher but the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggled and settled only 0.65% up. It might be an ominous sign that the sector’s attraction is on the wane. A weaker dollar and retreating bond yields suggest that appetite for risk was healthy last month and economic prospects are sanguine.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Masses of Endeavour, Little Return

30 Aug 2024

Masses of Endeavour, Little Return

Oil prices have endured a topsy turvy week where M1 Brent futures on Monday rallied $2.56/barrel to $81.58, spent the next two days giving nearly all back by dropping to a low of $77.95 on Wednesday, and sits almost mid-range at $80.00 at time of press. It is a short-term technician's nightmare and trade bias sees bulls being bears, bears being bulls in something of positional fluidity. Do not look now, but right-wing observers will accuse Brent of being woke. Levity aside, the lack of commitment in price and the feeling that whoever is left on the field of trading battle is either all in or all out thus creating herd-like moves.ecutive daily loss must have raised red flags. Tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe must be supportive.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Gloom and Doom

29 Aug 2024

Gloom and Doom

A glance at the chart of any of the five major oil futures contracts reveals that the oil complex is bound by its range established this month – and it is the lower end, which is under pressure but is holding. Consequently, it is premature to conclude that the only way is down, yet, given the quality of news the second consecutive daily loss must have raised red flags. Tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe must be supportive.