Daily Oil Fundamentals

Geopolitical Circle

17 Jun 2025

Geopolitical Circle

The reaction to unexpected geopolitical developments in the proximity of oil-producing regions, such as the current Israeli assault on Iran, follows a similar pattern. When the headline hits the screens man and machine (traders and algorithms) get rid of risky positions and the adventurous ones start building up length. Phase one was embodied in Friday’s jump to $78.50/bbl in Brent. As details start to filter through, the actual situation is assessed, which can be labelled phase two. Oil supply and production were ostensibly spared in the initial strikes, and oil fell from the summit but still posted considerable daily gains because of the uncertainty the weekend carried.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

The Inevitable is Upon Us

16 Jun 2025

The Inevitable is Upon Us

The escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran has for a while almost felt like an eventuality rather than possibility. This does not take away the remarkable reaction seen in oil futures prices in the early hours of Friday morning. There are some, including the occupant of this seat, who have questioned the wisdom of almost 24-hour trading in oil derivatives. There is a case for such a state of openness in the massive markets of forex, equity bourse indices, bonds and other of such voluminous ilk, but commodities and oil do not have such liquidity outside of the normal European/US trading hours.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Middle East Engulfed in Flames

13 Jun 2025

Middle East Engulfed in Flames

The possibility has been mentioned frequently on the pages of this report but to claim that ‘we have told you so’ would be intellectual dishonesty. For most, wars are incomprehensible in the 21st century, yet as the global order is being rewritten it is becoming an acceptable method to establish one’s authority. Despite, or maybe because of, its growing international isolation, Israel has struck Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its military facilities killing two of its top commanders.