Daily Oil Fundamentals

Perceived tightening and actual outage

14 Jul 2023

Perceived tightening and actual outage

It is difficult to remove ourselves from the inflation and interest rate stories as they continue to haunt investment markets in the background be they for better or worse. The very tepid US PPI of -0.1% has again given rise to speculation of both disinflation and that the Federal Reserve will only raise interest rates by one more time this year. Indeed, the CME FEDwatch tool has adjusted pricing to the extent that there is only a 20% chance of another riseafter the expected 25-basis point increase at the July 25-26 meeting. Where this is important for risk assets including oil, is it has inspired a complete flounder by the US Dollar.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Imports, Inventories and Interest Rates

13 Jul 2023

Imports, Inventories and Interest Rates

There is an oddity in reaction to the China Customs data released this morning. On the face of it, the decrease in both imports and exports ought to send more of shock through the minds of investors particularly as some

economists have downgraded their economic predictions for the balance of 2023.

Market News Round-Up Reports

Overbaked – Part 1

26 May 2023

Overbaked – Part 1

In today’s recipe, we will learn how to send oil prices down by $10/bbl. Start with a good helping of inflationary pressures, a dollop of rising interest rates, a sprinkle of US banking turmoil, a spoonful of anxiety over a potential US default, and finish off with a dusting of weak Chinese data. Mix well, bake for four weeks, and voila!