Daily Oil Fundamentals

Weak Dollar, Strong Distillates

27 Jun 2025

Weak Dollar, Strong Distillates

After striking a truce in the Middle East, the U.S. President wasted little time in turning his attention back to his favourite antagonist in Washington D.C., the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. He is reportedly contemplating choosing Powell’s replacement well before the latter’s mandate ends in May next year. Concerns over the central bank’s independence have resurfaced, and the dollar index has plunged to its lowest level since March 2022. Mr. Powell has consistently argued that any potential reduction in U.S. borrowing costs will be data-driven—an approach Donald Trump clearly rejects.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Depleting US Oil Inventories

26 Jun 2025

Depleting US Oil Inventories

After a turbulent two weeks, a sense of calm has been restored. This feeling of normality is a welcome development although one must be prepared for the re-emergence of the mayhem. All it takes is a stray missile or a hostile social media post. For now, however, the shaky Israel-Iran truce remains in effect. Our base case scenario, therefore, is that investors, whilst they will keep their watchful eyes on the Middle East, are shifting their focus back to the macroeconomy and oil balance.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Fragile but Holding

25 Jun 2025

Fragile but Holding

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in the early hours of yesterday, missiles and mutual accusations of violations continued to fly back and forth — much to the chagrin of President Trump, who brokered the truce. He did not shy away from publicly reprimanding both parties for the disobedience. While a number of questions regarding the deal and in fact the effectiveness of the US strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains unanswered, the fact that the agreement is still in effect has been met with a massive sigh of relief.