Daily Oil Fundamentals

Recalcitrant Fed, Rising Distillate Inventories and Tariffs, Tariffs and Tariffs

31 Jul 2025

Recalcitrant Fed, Rising Distillate Inventories and Tariffs, Tariffs and Tariffs

A look behind the raw numbers foretells topping action. As expected, the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged, although the decision was not unanimous, with two governors dissenting. Unsurprisingly, the move irritated the President, who pointed to the 3% economic expansion in 2Q to reiterate his view that inflation is under control and that lowering borrowing costs is inevitable.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Exhausting, but Never, Ever Dull

30 Jul 2025

Exhausting, but Never, Ever Dull

In two-weeks’ time at the expiry of the first interim trade agreement between the US and China, President Trump will have the final say on whether a copycat ninety-day extension will then commence. As a stability move, it is fine and dandy, but even the most avid optimist could not sell it as a closing-in on a final solution. That may only happen if Presidents Xi and Trump meet and despite the public goodwill aired from both sides of the respective negotiating teams, such a sit-down is unlikely much before the year’s end.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Ostensible Clarity

29 Jul 2025

Ostensible Clarity

Faites vos jeux. There is still time to play the tariff roulette. Although it remains as obscure as ever where the boule will ultimately stop, there is a growing belief that the US will, on average, impose import tariffs of between 15% and 20% on both major and minor trading partners.