In the absence of any clear pathway forward on global economic growth or supply prospects and given the disruptive and unpredictable nature of the US administration the market does what is the most reasonable thing to do under the circumstances: react to headlines.
In 1886, the Liberal politician Joseph Chamberlain said: “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” In the 1960’s this was taken up by the British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s: “A week is a long time in politics.”
The slightly farcical diplomatic situation developing between the US and Ukraine only highlights how an aggravated President Zelensky will take much more convincing to agree to a peace deal. Any immediacy of an ending to the war is disappearing and so are oil trading positions driven by an idea of a Russian future without sanctions and able to deliver its energy across the globe unhindered.
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