The outlook has not changed, sentiment remains buoyant. Firstly, it is looking increasingly probable that the US will avoid recession. Its economy grew by a forecast-beating 2.4% in 2Q although consumer spending slowed a little and weekly jobless claims fell implying a continuously strong labour market.
The US central bank cannot be accused of complacency or misleading forward guidance. It has been reliably consistent in its approach to tackle inflation; it has been data driven...
Last week saw the complex ending in good form and has now notched up 4-week gains. On the week they individually finished, WTI +$1.65/bbl, Brent +$1.12/bbl, Heating Oil +14.78c/gal, RBOB +15.81c/gal, +$39/ton. Compared with products WTI and Brent had a more stately move higher, being subject to greater immediate macro-economic worries and the flip of refiner turnarounds that are bullying the derivatives higher.
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