Daily Oil Fundamentals

China's Proposed Debt Increase Leaves Markets Underwhelmed

17 Dec 2024

China's Proposed Debt Increase Leaves Markets Underwhelmed

Despite the revelation this morning from Reuters that China is prepared to increase its budget deficit to 4% of GDP in defensive of not only the 5% GDP growth target next year but probable trade war with the USA, it cannot cover the lack of spending that remains a stubborn attribute of its populace. A point well made by Reuters is that such legislation is not announced until a parliament sitting in March giving time for plans to be changed or watered down, a thought that is the right of cynics given the mouthing of much and delivering of little in the recent steps deployed by China to befuddle markets.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanctions Fizz is Being Flattened by China in a Huge Data Week

16 Dec 2024

Sanctions Fizz is Being Flattened by China in a Huge Data Week

Oil prices are still enjoying the wash of last week's very decent performance as the notion of initial tighter supplies from Russia due to sanctions introduced by the European Union and the likely joining of them from the US which itself, under a Donald Trump tutelage, will be far more hawkish toward Iran. The main futures contracts in their M1 contracts finished the week; WTI +$4.09/barrel (+6.09%), Brent +$3.37/barrel (+4.74%), Heating Oil +13.74c/gallon (+6.44%), RBOB +9.56c/gallon (+5.02%) and Gasoil +$41.50/tonne (+6.41%).

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanctions in the Minds of the Oil Public

13 Dec 2024

Sanctions in the Minds of the Oil Public

There were few surprises in the IEA monthly report and the Paris-based agency is still plotting a global scenario of decreasing need for oil. For 2024, it trimmed the demand forecast growth by 80,000 to 840kbpd. This remains the most negative of outlook and although OPEC reduced its own forecast, it was not at the same pace to that of the IEA. In fact, OPEC and the EIA reduced by 20kbpd and 10kbpd respectively to 103.83mbpd and 103.03mbpd in something of alignment while the IEA is still running as a more bearish outlier.