Daily Oil Fundamentals

Sanctions in the Minds of the Oil Public

13 Dec 2024

Sanctions in the Minds of the Oil Public

There were few surprises in the IEA monthly report and the Paris-based agency is still plotting a global scenario of decreasing need for oil. For 2024, it trimmed the demand forecast growth by 80,000 to 840kbpd. This remains the most negative of outlook and although OPEC reduced its own forecast, it was not at the same pace to that of the IEA. In fact, OPEC and the EIA reduced by 20kbpd and 10kbpd respectively to 103.83mbpd and 103.03mbpd in something of alignment while the IEA is still running as a more bearish outlier.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Perceptions Outweigh Facts

12 Dec 2024

Perceptions Outweigh Facts

It is far from being set in stone that factors that pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index above 20,000 points and aided oil to rally more than $1.5/bbl yesterday will provide long-term support, but further gains in the immediate future cannot be ruled out. US consumer prices increased as anticipated—core CPI rose 3.3% on the year, and the headline figure was up 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool now puts a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut next week.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

A News Rich Environment

11 Dec 2024

A News Rich Environment

It looks as if the Biden administration is trying to run interference with the idea that on gaining the keys to the White House, Donald Trump will put pressure on Ukraine to settle the war with Russia. According to a piece on Bloomberg, and repeated elsewhere, a new phalanx of sanctions is being considered on oil exports from Russia with a joint effort including the European Union that targets both the shadow fleet servicing the lucrative trade and eventual customers.