The US central bank cannot be accused of complacency or misleading forward guidance. It has been reliably consistent in its approach to tackle inflation; it has been data driven...
Last week saw the complex ending in good form and has now notched up 4-week gains. On the week they individually finished, WTI +$1.65/bbl, Brent +$1.12/bbl, Heating Oil +14.78c/gal, RBOB +15.81c/gal, +$39/ton. Compared with products WTI and Brent had a more stately move higher, being subject to greater immediate macro-economic worries and the flip of refiner turnarounds that are bullying the derivatives higher.
There is still plenty within the macro-suite to carry on knocking oil off its stride. This is not just something that haunts bulls, howsoever ones sees fit to approach the market there is an economic counter waiting to pounce. The wider suite today is concerned with some markers from the United States. The lower initial jobless claims gives credence to those that still believe the employment market is still running too hot. Inflation is always in mind and investors looking for some sort of relief in the near future from the Federal Reserve will have 10-year breakeven inflation rising 2-basis points within a day to confound them. To put this in context, 10-year breakeven is a daily marker and these moves are not unusual, although such an increase has not happened for a week.
Copyright © 2024 TP ICAP