To quote Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, ‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen’. And boy, what turbulent last few weeks we have witnessed in US politics. It all started with the Presidential debate, a near-suicide for the Democratic party and culminated in the incumbent removing himself from the top of the ticket throwing an ostensible lifeline for the donkeys.
With the presidential debate somewhat calmed as Joe Biden tries to clear a path for Kamala Harris (touched on below) with enough alleged support to secure nomination, there does seem to be less anxiety around markets and the shelving of what the 'Trump' trade might actually mean.
We have long held the view that oil prices ought to test and even briefly penetrate the $90/bbl milestone in the third quarter of the year. Continuous OPEC+ cuts, growing confidence in lowering borrowing costs in several developed economies and seasonally strong thirst for refined products have all been part of this bullish jigsaw puzzle.
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