Daily Oil Fundamentals

Rallies are from Transitory Headlines, but Sentiment has Changed

09 Sep 2024

Rallies are from Transitory Headlines, but Sentiment has Changed

There is no point in trying to get away from the fact that last week's oil performance was anything less than terrible. M1 WTI finished down $5.88/barrel (-7.99%), Brent $7.74/barrel (-9.82%), Heating Oil 13.65c/gallon (-6.06%), RBOB 31.57c/gallon (-14.27%) and Gasoil $46.00/tonne (-6.6%). All contracts made new 2024 lows and in the case of the US products, prices were printed that have not been seen since the pandemic year of 2021.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

No Rest for the Wicked

06 Sep 2024

No Rest for the Wicked

OPEC+ not putting 180,000 bpd of crude oil back on the market for two additional months achieved nought, as discussed below. A seemingly constructive weekly statistics from the EIA – ditto. How would you interpret an unchanged settlement in WTI following a 6.9 million bbls decline in crude oil and an 8 million bbls withdrawal in commercial oil inventories? Surely, red flags were raised. Maybe, the focus was on dismal demand figures as refiners supplied 1 mbpd less oil than the week before with proxy gasoline demand falling under 9 mbpd – hence the disenchanting RBOB performance.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Markets and Investors are Backfooted

05 Sep 2024

Markets and Investors are Backfooted

There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices this morning caused in the main by a greater draw of stock in the US API data than anticipated. Crude drew 7.4mb barrels against a -1mb expectation, Gasoline -0.3mb and Distillate -0.4mb with both products forecasted to have mild builds. If matched by the EIA Inventory Report later, the Crude draw will be the largest for 2-months, but as the two publications have not exactly chimed in agreement of late, the market will have to wait for such confirmation.